February 28th, 2012

Enda Game On

Ireland has just tossed a mighty spanner in the EU-works.  The Taoiseach has confirmed in the Dáil that the Attorney-General has advised a referendum is necessary on the EU’s fiscal union plan, “The Irish people will be asked for their authorisation in a referendum to ratify the European stability treaty”, Enda Kenny told the Irish parliament. Cameron was unable to veto the plan but the Irish people might just be able. The last time a €urozone prime minister promised a referendum on the EU, the EUrocat dictators replaced him with unelected technocrats. That won’t happen in Ireland.

Currently 20 cents of every euro of Irish taxes is going to pay the interest on the €uro-bank bail-out debts. The Irish bail-out plan is costing €54,800 per Irish household. Ireland’s future thus looks a lot more bleak than Iceland’s path of debt default and a devaluation of 60% two years ago which has seen the country rebounding: exports and manufacturing are growing by 20%, tourism is back near all-time highs, real wages are rising, unemployment is declining sharply, interest rates fell from 18% to 5.5% and the stock market has rebounded 50% from its lows. The bond rating agencies have already re-rated Iceland investment grade. In contrast the €uro-banker’s bail-out will only burden the next generation of Irish who don’t flee the crushing debts not of their making…

Ireland’s long love affair with Brussels has come to an end. It is not inconceivable that Ireland could vote no… making it stick is the problem…


91 Comments

  1. 1
    Problem says:

    But he will sign the treaty on Friday.

    BEFORE any referendum

    Like

    • 4
      • 5
        Ed Conway (Sky) says:

        “On Friday, the Irish Taoiseach will sign EU Treaty in Brussels. Then, a few wks later, he’ll hold a referendum on it. Now that’s democracy”

        Like

        • 29
          Chuckus Yamoney says:

          Argentina defaulted in 2002 and restructured as did Iceland in 2009.

          While both countries experienced immediate financial hardship, both are firmly rebounding and doing much better than if they had followed Japan’s example of endlessly paying creditors who should have been told to get lost 22 years ago.

          Politicians and bankers never stay in office if a country defaults, so that is why the leaders in Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy will tell we can’t do it here.

          PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE IRELAND, JUST SAY NO and let the rest of Europe press the reset button to make the vested interests take a capital haircut on debts they should never have extended and we cannot service.

          Like

          • Euro Trougher says:

            You sad pathetic lot – Do you really think your vote, or anyone’s vote, actually matters?

            Do you honestly believe we’d let you vote on anything at all if we actually thought it might make even the slightest difference?

            Like

          • Native of South Britain says:

            What bollocks about Argentina and Iceland. Default only helps spivs.

            If you had money in either country before default, you don’t now. If you could afford a house before default, you can’t even afford a car now. If you had a pension fund before, you starve now.

            The assets of both countries were sold for about 4% of their pre-collapse value, to overseas buyers. We don’t even have that way to make assets.

            Iceland has devalued 60% (We here in the UK – or Poundland as it will be called after the Scots go – have “only” devalued 30% and look at our petrol and food prices). Yes, unemployment there has gone down – and 10% of the workforce has emigrated. You want more devaluation; why don’t you help us out and go and make trainers in Indonesia? We can always attract tourists to patronise the cute natives; after all we do have a reputation for high class prostitution specialising in the “English sexual” style.

            Like Germany in 1925, the rich (bankers) have done best. The only thing the Icelanders have achieved is to imprison some of theirs.

            Like

          • Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

            You are right about Iceland but very far from correct about Argentina. They did indeed default but failed to restructure the economy.

            http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100015225/argentinas-never-ending-trajedy/

            They have been blatantly lying about their economic statistics to the point the IMF has given the country a warning which if not heeded can lead to expulsion.

            http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr1230.htm

            This basically means they are falsifying the position to make it look better than it really is.

            It is still the same old statist, corrupt quagmire it has been since Peron.

            Like

          • War Economy says:

            It dosn’t matter if they say YES or No. The result is going to be the same. Without growth to break the downward cycle of recession all of Europe will default as well as the USA. War to much TAX and toxic derivatives market too many public sector workers getting too much for what they do and the ongoing WAR have broken the country. Western leaders are economic terrorists. Thatcher through to Bliar Osboom. Regan Clinton BUSH, and now the worst president of all time a fantasy dreamed up by Hollywood.

            Like

          • Chuckus Yamoney says:

            ….and your solution is what exactly

            Like

          • Rage Against the Political Elite. says:

            CUT TAX. And stop spending the countries wealth on as much non commericial activity. Phoney War on Drugs to keep a load of coppers in a job, and the disgraceful Phoney War in Afghanistan draining the western worlds cash down the toilet.

            Like

    • 10
      Herman Van Pumpy says:

      How many referendums will the Irish need before they get the answer right ?

      Like

    • 24
      Osama the Nazarene says:

      If only the Irish people could see that being part of the euro zone was not in their best interests!

      I fear they will be blinded again.

      Like

  2. 2
    Andrew Efiong says:

    I reckon the Irish will do what they are told, as usual.

    Like

  3. 3
    EU Hater. says:

    ” When Irish eyes are smiling…..”

    Like

  4. 7
    European Commission says:

    Ve do not take no for an answer. Go away and try again.

    Like

    • 52
      Handycock (Teen Fondler) says:

      Icelandic girls are very pretty, especially the young ones. Looks like an MP’s visit needs to be organised to examine their economy. Boaz.

      Like

  5. 7
    Cicero says:

    And does anyone really think they wouldn’t be capable of stuffing the ballot boxes with ‘yes’ votes, as, allegedly, happened last time …?

    Like

  6. 12
    lovely free money says:

    They’ll vote yes.

    Like

  7. 13
    Andrew says:

    Are you quite sure Angela Merkel will not place a Quisling in charge?

    Like

  8. 15

    “It is not inconceivable the Irish could note no”

    That’s a `yes’ then.

    Like

    • 39
      Anonymous Misogynist says:

      It doesn’t matter if they vote NO…12 YES votes from the other 16 countries in the €uro is all that is needed..

      Like

      • 60
        Pundit Too says:

        Quite right only 12 is needed on this issue now.
        If they vote NO then they are simply out of any future financial bailouts like UK and possibly Czech Republic, but nothing else changes.
        If they vote YES then they can be eligible for a future bailout.

        Like

  9. 16
    Droit de Cuissage says:

    His Grace tells me on Twitter that the Fiscal Union does not need unanimous Eurozone ratification to come into force. So this Irish referendum is irrelevant. Though I’d like to see written confirmation…

    Like

  10. 17
    Fuct says:

    “The Irish people will be asked for their authorisation in a referendum to ratify the European stability treaty” About time the people were asked. If this referendum goes ahead, Call Me Dave and Co are – hopefully- fucked when it comes to denying the UK their own referendum.

    Listen to this for the best explanation of the EU crisis

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01cjwtx

    Like

  11. 21
    Pawn Sandwich says:

    We need to send for the experienced one – the man who saved the worlds banking system.

    Like

    • 32
      Pawn Sandwich says:

      A man of courage, a man of vision, a man who knows how to invest for hard working families………

      Like

      • 56
        Sick of the greed and lies still says:

        That will be the man that put the end to Boom and Bust through prudence?
        I guess the reason we are in this mess is down to those nasty Tories?

        Like

        • 61
          Maggies Spirit. says:

          And don’t forget me in the blame game

          Like

          • Tony Bliar that straight kinda guy says:

            That will also be the man that is devoting the rest of his life to charity and teaching work…………..Well I suppose charity begins at home……….

            Like

  12. 22

    The turnout will be a record 186%. The ballot papers have already been printed in Poland and are being filled in with assorted pens, pencils and crayons as we blog.

    God rest ye merrie Irishmen. Fear not. The plan will survive – for another month or two.

    Like

  13. 23
    Grocer Hea#th (in pseudo posh accent) says:

    Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah – EUSSR!

    Like

  14. 25
    Gaston Glock says:

    Irish referenda are like Greek final economic solutions and Number 11 buses – there’ll be yet another one along shortly.

    Like

  15. 26
    Sally's Alley says:

    Had a few strays round here today! Anyone wanna claim them?

    Like

  16. 27
    Popeye says:

    Beautiful!

    Like

  17. 28
    Stan Butler says:

    They will be reminded that unless they vote yes then there will be further bailout cash, then they will vote yes. The Irish will vote to surrender any remaining vestige of sovereignty and then blame the English.

    Like

  18. 30
    Papapopaeuroinmypocket says:

    So he is signing the treaty before a referendum? Typical Paddy!

    Like

  19. 33
    Nads says:

    Like

    • 38
      Glyn H says:

      Let us hope she made less of a mess of her life and a fool of herself than you have.
      What is it about Bedfordshire? Ludicrous posturing MP like you, vile troughing from that woeful Moran woman that Labour put into Luton and now the Cable appoints the arch bishop of dumbing down from Luton Polytechnic to tell the Russell Group universities to screw themselves to sort 45 years of state socialism in education. It’s Pythonesque!

      Like

  20. 34
    polythesis says:

    IF there is a referendum and its a big IF the euroslime kommissars have two choices, they can and will ignore the result if it goes against them or they will force another referendum which they will rig. As we saw in the last rigged rerun referendum young activists in white vans quietly removing ballot boxes and replacing them with stuffed ones, other young activists arriving and departing the counts with bags and boxes.

    The EU has gone to great lengths to avoid public referendums to spoil their anti democratic coup, the Irish will not be allowed to derail the birth of the 4th Reich, not going to happen. The banksters want their(Irish)money and they really couldnt give a flying f*ck who they impoverish or hurt, the EU wants its regions in debt and the deeper the better. Exit and devaluation is not an option because it defeats the whole purpose of impoverished and indebted regions needing the EU and relying on the EU and obedient to the EU.

    There is only one nation who will be allowed to get away as rich and richer in this new 4th Reich and that is Germany whose exports are now a 3rd cheaper by using the Euro. All around the non entity peripheral regions, which in reality means anywhere outside German borders now will be forced into a managed decline and induced dependency on the centre of the 4th Reich. The 4th Reich will not need tanks and SS to keep its regions in order, it has the banksters and legions of bought and sold Quislings.

    Like

    • 62
      Pundit Too says:

      There WILL be a referendum as it is constitutionally necessary.
      If Ireland tried to go on without it then some berk will complain to the supreme court and they will agree it is necessary.

      Like

  21. 35
    hovi says:

    Immaterial what they vote, this is democracy illusion.

    From FT Alphaville
    “the Treaty text states that ratification by twelve states is needed for it to enter into force, suggesting an Irish no is not a legal deal-breaker. As a political flash-point though, it’ll be worth watching”

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/28/901711/the-people-and-austerity/

    Like

    • 72
      yet again... says:

      Yes, but that may mean that it is force for only the 12 who ratified. If a country does not ratify, then it cannot not apply to them.

      Like

      • 81
        Kenny is Manuel Barroso's pillow-biter says:

        Wrong. Lisbon states that agreements subject to QMV (Qualified Majority Voting) are binding. Ireland cannot hold a referendum to reject it, then proceed to ignore it, without violating Lisbon and effectively leaving the EU.
        This is going to be a fascinating political flashpoint. I suspect that the sheer firepower, media, all mainstream political parties etc of the pro-EU camp will sweep all before them, as before, and the EU will win any referendum.

        Like

  22. 36
    Doctor Mick says:

    The EU gangsters will make the Irish an offer they cannot understand.

    Like

  23. 40

    Don’t complain about Europe. Make money out of it.

    Our host is in a similar position to me. Citizen of country A resident in country B. There are several celebrated contributors here who are in the same boat.

    If I were still living in England then I would pay CGT on investment property. But as an overseas resident, I can own property and let it without being taxed on any gain. (If the government did not allow this then people from abroad would not invest.)

    So, be brave. Emigrate. Sell up at best price. Buying something in Europe will nearly always be cheaper. Building something from scratch is the best. Then you can buy an investment property, or two, in the UK. You can even rent to a family member who just happens to allow you to stay in it from time to time…

    You can only stay a maximum of 90 days in the UK. But, if you are cunning, you can get into the country without them swiping your passport. They don’t even fucking well know if you are here or not. I don’t do that myself – but I could easily. I could live full time in the UK whilst appеaring to be a foreign resident.

    Even if the EU broke up, they would have to provide for millions of displaced persons. No risk – everything to gain.

    Like

  24. 44
    Rh- says:

    If the irish voted no and the EU replaced the irish prime minister with unelected technocrats … could we see the IRA come out of retirement and start blowing up bits of Brussels?

    Like

  25. 48
    Jimmy says:

    Yoda was going to refer it anyway.

    Like

  26. 51
    I hate Blue Labour says:

    Doesn’t matter if they vote against it… they’ll keep having a referendum until the ‘right’ answer is given.

    Like

  27. 54

    The Fiscal Compact would not have prevented Ireland’s finacial crisis and it could have made it a lot worse.

    Full analysis here: http://bit.ly/xPEmDH

    Why would Ireland vote to sign up to the Fiscal Compact when they should be leaving the Euro if they want to prevent another financial crisis?

    Like

  28. 57
    Alistair Campbell says:

    God Save Ireland

    Like

  29. 58
    Anonymous says:

    Ireland is an island. The near-bankrupt Eurozone state referred to above is the “Irish Republic”.

    Northern Ireland is still British, and still free.

    Like

    • 80

      Free of what? We are certainly not free from the ball and chain of Europe dragging us down to Davy Jones locker. The great European socialist experiment supported by all parties still has it’s icy grip round our necks – and our wallets and hasn’t yet finished asset stripping the lot of us.

      It’s a crying shame we have to look over the water to see the electorates rights being respected.

      Like

      • 87
        British Citizen says:

        Free to sponge £7 billion a year in overt subsidies and a possible £1 billion from costs the private sector puts on the GB consumer.

        Like

  30. 63
    stephen nash says:

    Come the day and come the hour
    Come the power and the glory
    We have come to answer
    Our Country’s call
    From the four proud provinces of Ireland

    Ireland, Ireland
    Together standing tall
    Shoulder to shoulder
    We’ll answer Ireland’s call

    Like

  31. 66
    Anonymous says:

    Oh the irony of it all!

    Just a few short years ago Guido was praising the Celtic Tiger and its Icelandic friend for Thatcheresque low-tax policies and creative banks.
    Now Guido recommends default and walking away from the inevitable mess.
    He can’t see that his recommendations and punditry are also bankrupt and bankrupting.

    Tony

    Like

  32. 67
    DJM says:

    Using the Euro symbol rather than an “E” is really annoying. It’s as bad as using terms like Lie-bore or Con-Dem. The argument is strong enough without the addition of visual accoutrements.

    Like

    • 90
      Samantha Fa-Ears ( aka The Only way is Essex says:

      Ooooooooooooooohh get yoooooou !!

      D’you know I’m a “glamur modul ” ??

      Like

  33. 76
    Stark says:

    Calm down.

    The treaty only needs 12 or 17 EZ countries to ratify for it to be implemented. No spanner in works there, then. A ‘No’ would cut Ireland off from ESM bailouts. But they took their bailout and austerity. And with no debt write-down – missed a trick there, chaps.

    Like

  34. 79
    John says:

    Iceland: “tourism is back near all-time highs”. Not so, it IS at an all-time high…

    Like

  35. 82
    Kenny is van Rumpuy's pillow-biter says:

    Irish accent: “So, the purpose of this latest Fiscal Union is complete and utter economic devastation then?”
    German Accent: “Ja but you are missing ze point! You vill haf utter economic devastation vis a good credit rating!”

    Like

  36. 89
    From the Desk of the Teapot says:

    The Republic will adherre to the democratically arrived at decsion of the people .

    We will never coutenance the calling a fourth or a fifth referendum to obtain the “required ” result ( though we may well call a second or indeed a third )

    Like


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