As is traditional during the New Year low in news flow pundits are expected to predict the future. Recently Guido has been veering between pessimistic and apocalyptic on the economy. Not quite as apocalyptic as expecting the world to end on December 21, 2012 as the Mayan calendar comes to an end and the winter solar solstice sees the alignment of the sun with the Milky Way to form a galactic equinox. Am betting that doesn’t mean the end of the world, and if it does, well no one will collect on that bet…
Guido’s predictions for this year:
- Margaret Thatcher will outlive the €uro as we now know it. If one of the weaker countries doesn’t break free in 2012 it will just mean the crisis will drag on unresolved until 2013.
- The probable Eurozone recession will be worse than the possible UK recession.
- Inflation will drop sharply as the VAT hike falls out of the calculation but it will be stubbornly higher than many forecast. Savers will still face negative real interest rates. There will be no sign of the deflation predicted by Mervyn King since 2008.
- There will be a collapse of another major European bank, arguably some have essentially collapsed already, it is just being hidden by governments and the ECB propping them up.
- Boris will vanquish Ken Livingstone from frontline politics forever.
- Ed Miliband will remain as leader of the Labour Party.
- A Tory cabinet minister will resign in disgrace.
This blog, with the help of co-conspirators and readers, will in 2012 go on being Britain’s favourite political blog. Happy New Year…