Hello 2012

As is traditional during the New Year low in news flow pundits are expected to predict the future. Recently Guido has been veering between pessimistic and apocalyptic on the economy. Not quite as apocalyptic as expecting  the world to end on December 21, 2012 as the Mayan calendar comes to an end and the winter solar solstice sees the alignment of the sun with the Milky Way to form a galactic equinox. Am betting that doesn’t mean the end of the world, and if it does, well no one will collect on that bet…

Guido’s predictions for this year:

  • Margaret Thatcher will outlive the €uro as we now know it. If one of the weaker countries doesn’t break free in 2012 it will just mean the crisis will drag on unresolved until 2013.
  • The probable Eurozone recession will be worse than the possible UK recession.
  • Inflation will drop sharply as the VAT hike falls out of the calculation but it will be stubbornly higher than many forecast. Savers will still face negative real interest rates. There will be no sign of the deflation predicted by Mervyn King since 2008.
  • There will be a collapse of another major European bank, arguably some have essentially collapsed already, it is just being hidden by governments and the ECB propping them up.
  • Boris will vanquish Ken Livingstone from frontline politics forever.
  • Ed Miliband will remain as leader of the Labour Party.
  • A Tory cabinet minister will resign in disgrace.

This blog, with the help of co-conspirators and readers, will in 2012 go on being Britain’s favourite political blog. Happy New Year…




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Quote of the Day

David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…

“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”

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