December 14th, 2011

Miliband’s Tactical Blunder

Europe is now the third most important issue to voters. A few months ago Guido suggested that if Ed had any eye for the long game he would ground Labour in popular Euroscepticism. He didn’t listen, in fact he did the polar opposite, and now he’s paying the price in the polls. Miliband’s lead over the Tories is about the only reason most of the Parliamentary Labour Party put up with him. Today every major polling firm has the Tories ahead or at least level with Labour again. Uh oh…

YouGov and Ipos-Mori both have the Tories on 2 points ahead on 41, while Survation and ComRes have them tied on 38. The LibDems are still just on the right side of double digits, while UKIP, who have been enjoying a recent surge while it appeared Cameron was going to sell the country down the river, have dropped back down to the 4 or 5 point mark.  That vote is sure to trickle back up after the initial veto-honeymoon for Dave…

Miliband has slumped in personal rankings as well. And it’s not just the pro-polling:

“But it’s a new LabourList poll of grassroots members that may also dismay Team Miliband. It found that the number of their readers rating Ed a good or excellent leader has fallen from 40% in November to just 26% this month. His decline in popularity appears to be linked to the public sector strikes: although 83% of readers backed the industrial action, only 25% though the Labour leader handled his party’s response well.”

Labour will win tomorrow’s by-election, but if these numbers become a regular feature it’s going take more than a “five-point plan for jobs and growth” to save Ed’s bacon.


  1. 1
    Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

    Miliband is like Brown, 2nd choice and a loser.

    • 3
      RED ED - SON OF BROWN says:

      What do you expect ? I’m still working off a blank sheet of paper.

    • 6
      Cell time says:

      Amazed the pollsters managed to find anyone who rated Eds leadership as excellent, this must be a typo!

      • 12
        Postal Voter says:

        The ‘imported’ electorate ?

      • 57
        Rat's arse says:

        I’m tired of asking how can anyone vote for this loser and his lousy party.
        I can only think they must be backward or the towel-headed brigade. I just give up!

      • 83
        Biased Broadcasting Corporation says:

        Well, well. Looks like all the BBC’s efforts have come to naught. In spite of all the s*** they’ve thrown at Cameron over phone hacking and Europe for the last 6 months, it hasn’t worked. They really do underestimate the intelligence of their audience. But then, we know that they think they know what is best for the little people.

        • 102
          misterned says:

          On the BBC 10 o’clock news last night the commentator could barely hide their incredulity that in the depths of an economic crisis, after we had the “whole nation out on strike” [sic] and we have had the phone hacking and the austerity cuts, that the tories would be in the lead in “ONE” poll!

          They must be wondering how is it possible? The BBC has been in full on 24/7 doom and gloom mode, exclusively blaming the tories and their banking friends for the economic troubles, suggesting that we are in recession, (we are not) and always doom-mongering that things can only ever get worse.

          The scale of the fiscal deficit the coalition inherited was so large, that it would take a decade to recover from, yet the BBC are blaming the tories for what is still obviously the natural and on-going consequence of labour’s lunatic levels of maladministration and economic incompetence. Not that any BBC viewer could ever get that knowledge from watching the biased BBC.

          I can just see emergency meetings of panicked BBC executives meeting to analyse what has gone wrong, and how can they better attack the tories to boost labour whilst not “compromising” their charter duty to political impartiality any more than they already have.

          I can see the day when someone at the BBC tells the labour leadership, “Fuckit! you are on your own. We have done the best we can to help you, but you picked that fuckwit Ed Miliband, NOT us. We even announced that his Brother had won, up until that awful moment of reality dawned, so fuck you guys, we quit!”

          • JH says:

            Make them go to a subscription model.

            The sudden, grinding realisation that people will NOT voluntarily pay en masse to have endless liberal Guardianista bullshit dripped into their ears might just make the luvvies reassess their hopeless devotion to Labour.

    • 18
      Anonymous says:

      Still Cameron wants to share power with Clegg!

      • 47
        Durr... says:

        He has no choice.

        • 55
          Broken Word says:

          OH YES HE HAS. Dave could call a general election because Clegg has broken the agreement of the coalition.

          • Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

            Has the fixed term parliament bill passed?

          • Floating Voter - not tory nor labour nor lib dem nor nuffink else says:

            Back to opposition then tories They have 5 years and won’t be giving that up even when Dave has done the dirty – that’s to Clegg’s shame.

          • Selohesra says:

            I think Dave would lose support if he went for election now as he would come across a bit manipulative – if the Limps could be persuaded to pull out and force election however then thats a different matter and a working majority could be on the cards

          • misterned says:

            Well the thick as pigshit Clegg has actually realised one thing… An election now would be complete political suicide for the Lib Dems. He is happy to be known as the Lib Dem who finally got the libdems into government. He does not want to be known as the libdem that killed his party for doing so.

            He has completely ruled out a “divorce” in the coalition, and is happy to sulk until the general election.

            As for Cameron calling an election. Not a chance. He was the one who was pushing fixed five year terms the strongest, he cannot reverse that now it is law (or on the verge of being law), additionally even if forced into an election situation, he would rather wait until the boundary changes have gone through in late 2013.

            There will not be a general election before the end of 2013.

  2. 2

    Yvette dear, am I what you’d call a popular Eurosceptic?

  3. 4
    AngryEnglishJon says:

    Leave the bugger alone. Last thing Dave needs is Midiotband having a good idea, as at the moment he’s busy putting out a contract on bloody HUUUUUHNE!

  4. 8
    Noddy says:

    I think Miliband should to go on a Unite-sponsored mission to Europe to single-handedly save the Euro by showing the Germans how to plant money trees.

  5. 9
    Steve Miliband says:

    He peaked at school debates.

  6. 10
    The lights are going out all over Europe....LibDems facing wipe-out in a General Election says:

    Despite the combined forces of the BBC,the Guardian,Independent,Lib-Dems and every which way Labour the British public are mainly eurosceptic and think that far too much power has been transferred to Brussels without politicians ever asking the people and that’s why they are desperate to avoid a referendum on the matter at all costs

    • 20
      Tax Payer says:

      The Eurocrats are quite merrily destroying themselves, anyway.

      • 22
        Rip van Wrinkle says:

        Problem is, they’re going to bring us down with them. Count on it. Hope you’re too old to be conscripted.

      • 61
        Ryan says:

        I’m beginning to think they are doing it on purpose. Who knows if Merkel and Sarkozy really believed in the Mitterand/Kohl crap? Maybe they never bought into it and want to go back to the “old ways”. Destroying the EU totally through economics will sure work a lot better than having a referendum or a Parliamentary vote that the Socialists would just reverse at the very next opportunity.

        Merkel/Sarkozy/Cameron could be in a right-wing plot to destroy the EU forever. Sure as hell aren’t doing it any favours.

        • 76
          Disliker of Bankers says:

          The rot started in the financial sector. The Germans thought they were popular enough to take charge, brought the French in as a sort of fig leaf, lost the Greeks – have propbably lost the Euro, then our great PM did something totally bonkers no one in Europe can understand and here we all are: up the creek without a paddle.

          • misterned says:

            There are at least six other EU countries expressing deep reservations about the deal signed by the 26 last week. In addition to those, if Sarkozy (as looks highly likely) looses their general election, then the man who is most likely to win has stated that he too will revoke this deal.

            Far from being isolated, Cameron is the first EU leader to scramble from the sinking ship and head for shore. There are others already talking about following.

            It is the Eurozone which is up the creek without a paddle. A majority of people in the UK are actually glad that we are not there!

        • 98
          Frightened socialist spotter says:

          Face it, the EUro drones are tenth rate local council pen pushing marxists, way out of their depth.
          The more they talk the more ridiculous they sound and the more ridiculous they sound, the more ridiculous they act.
          The EUro and EU will die because of the laughable EU elite, their collective idiocy, aggressive hatred of democracy and personal freedom.
          I can’t wait.

          • Durr... says:

            I cannot disagree but I do fear for the future. Two wars in Europe in less than 50 years with the Germans as aggressors led by many of the type of nutters seen posting on here suggests to me that the lessons of the past have still not been learned. I reckon the Yanks look on in absolute terror.
            We don’t seem to have any Statesmen any more. Look at the likes of Balls and the rest of the opposition rabble, then Cameron(!)
            You could conclude that things are not very good just now.
            Where is the Churchill like character?

          • misterned says:

            The BBC and the rest of the liberal controlled media in this country ridicule the only British politician who is even remotely Churchillian… Nigel Farage.

            Much as they would most likely actually ridicule Churchill, if if he was Prime Minister now!

            I wish Cameron had even half of Farage’s passion to defend the UK and put the people of the UK first second and third.

            I wish Cameron would take a look at the UKIP manifesto and ruthlessly steal all the many common sense and decent policies therein!

          • Rufus Stone says:

            How about David Davis or Hannan for the Churchillian role?

          • Lou Scannon says:

            Stealing policies is one thing, Misterned, but acting on them is something else altogether. I’ll believe it when I see it.

    • 31
      Big Ears says:

      The BBC does not understand that the public is confronted with the evidence of the downsides of the EU every time they are served in a shop by a Pole (as pleasant or not as they may personally be), everytime they see a Lithuanian alcoholic stumbling about on a park bench, every time they can’t get a seat on the overcrowded underground, everytime they see a crowd of Romanian pickpockets lurking around the station . The degradation of our national life by the sheer overcrowding that the influx has caused is ever-present and no amount of glossing it over with multiculti bullshit and propaganda will obviate that.

      • 72
        Old Git says:

        Don’t mind Poles or Lithuanians or Romanians. I do object to Afghans and Somalis and the rest of that lot.

        • 84
          Big Ears says:

          Spend a Monday morning in a few remand courts in the London area and then tell me if you haven’t changed your mind a weansy little bit about the malign influence of organised Romanian criminal gangs.

      • 108
        misterned says:

        If Guido ever were to bring back the thumbs up icons (in a manner which could work) then this is one of those posts (which are rare) in which I actually miss those thumbs.

        Thumbs up!

    • 41
      Grumpy Old Man says:


  7. 11
    Jimmy Fox says:

    Milliband only has a 5 point plan because he doesn’t want to take his shoes and socks off.

  8. 15
    Steve Miliband says:

    Still don’t know whether he would have signed the treaty or not.

    • 114
      misterned says:

      He allowed it to be known via labour aides that he would not have signed it. He (to my knowledge) has not actually publicly admitted this yet, because he is far too cowardly to openly admit how much of a snivelling, cowardly, deceitful opportunistic hypocrite he is.

      And he owes a great debt of gratitude to the BBC for refusing to push any labour shadow minister to answer that question at all. They have allowed shadow minister after shadow minister to spread bullshit about diminished influence and being isolated, without once pressing them about what they would have actually achieved. The BBC have repeatedly allowed labour shadow minister after labour shadow minister to get away with the ridiculous claim that they would have “built alliances in the EU for our position and achieved a different outcome”


      They have never been pressed any labour shadow minister to answer.

      Considering the main purpose of the actual summit was to agree to a binding change to the Lisbon treaty, requiring all 27 EU members to agree, in order to save the Euro by SPECIFICALLY taxing the shit out of British pension funds in a direct attack on the UK financial sector, and THAT was the one and only goal the French had in their sights, then there is no way in hell that a shit 6th form debater like Miliband could have ever changed sarkozy’s mind when he had his mind in election mode solely on screwing the Brits out of further billions.

      The fact is, labour are completely on the wrong side of this argument and this is why labour are getting fucked in the polls.

    • 120
      Anonymous says:

      Neither does he!

  9. 16
    Ed Miliboob says:

    Dad, I got it wrong again!

  10. 19
    Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

    For Labour it must be a shame, they wanted another Blair (winner) and got another Brown.

    If only they had picked his brother….

    • 27
      Steve Miliband says:

      What, Andrew Brown?

    • 30
      Cell time says:

      A decent poster campaign showing that weirdo holding his banana and he would be unelectable.

      He will be replaced with the Boy wonder, also unelectable as PM.

      • 36
        Noddy says:

        Oh, there is far worse than that banana skin for him to slip up on.

        • 49
          Durr... says:

          IMHO Bananaboy Milliband was the obvious selection – how Ed. stole in is a mystery to me (ignoring Union involvement). None of the others even figured.
          I am incredulous that Labour are even a blip on the radar, so bloody piss poor are the tories.

        • 118
          misterned says:

          The tories could be the most wonderful, fantastic, fair, competent and brilliant politicians ever to grace the green benches in Parliament, and still there would be about 29% of the voting public who would vote labour no matter what (as they did in 2010). Add to those 27% another 10% points or so for those braindead people who insist on voting against any party who happens to be in power, purely because they are in power, and you are getting very close to explaining labour’s current support.

          That additional 10% points of voters are made up of former liberal democrat voters who could never, ever vote for a party of government. The tories were in government for four successive terms, and so they could not vote tory in 2010. Labour were in government for three terms, so they could not vote labour. This is why they supported a party which had not ever been in government in it’s current form.

          They supported a party who wanted PR, so presumably they supported coalition government. But when actually presented with one, they ditch their own party and turn to a party which offered them much less of what they had campaigned for, than the tories did.

          There is absolutely no rational logic, or reason in their heads.

          The Lib dems made out like bandits in the coalition agreement and got so much more of their policies implemented than their electoral result deserved.

          Yet 10% points worth of THEIR voters turned to labour, who offered them NOTHING. Labour who had told the lib dems that they had to accept whatever terms labour dictated and accept and support 100% of the labour manifesto to form a coalition.

          What are these 10% of voters thinking???

    • 99
      Frightened socialist spotter says:

      Banana boy signed Lisbon. That alone should keep him out of domestic politics for the rest of his life and in a court for tre*ason. I wonder why he has not had his collar felt for that crime?

    • 121
      Anonymous says:

      Be careful what you wish for Billy.

  11. 23
    Buffet Bowler says:

    The coalition may outlast Edm, Balls is a worthy successor to continue the demise of the Fabians.

  12. 25
    MAD FRANKIE HADDOCK son of COD says:

    He will be out on his arse by the summer
    As his brother has decided to start showing up again 1

  13. 29

    “UKIP, who have been enjoying a recent surge while it appeared Cameron was going to sell the country down the river, have dropped back down to the 4 or 5 point mark.”

    Unsurprising. There is nothing to put people off UKIP like taking a good close look at UKIP.

    Neil Hamilton, yeuch.

    • 101
      Frightened socialist spotter says:

      I agree, vile lot, always talking about getting out of the EU, saying man made global warming is a scam, tough immigration controls and sound money policies. Vermin!

  14. 33
    Tuscan Tony says:

    “…the number of [LabourList] readers rating Ed a good or excellent leader has fallen from 40% in November to just 26% this month.”

    26%?!?!?!?!? Who are these sick people?

  15. 34
    old grumpy says:

    The bit Guido overlooks is that Dave “No Mates” is not so alone after all! The indications are that at least half a dozen apparently enthusiastic supporters of the Euro Quickfix are now back pedalling for all they are worth…………. Just maybe Cambo really got things right on the button!………. I think he did……….. forget the secession issues……..

  16. 38
    Loungelizard says:

    That’s fine. The Milibands are tainted goods. Dave lost any chance of a serious political career with the ‘Banana’ photograph Bring them on as they say. Vote for a monkey your pension will be peanuts!

  17. 43
    Elsie Beattie (83 and a quarter) says:

    To build on his slimmest of leads in the polls I think Mr. Cameron should invade The Falklands again, dear.

    • 52
      Durr... says:

      and then go on to free Europe.

    • 126
      Taking the easy way out says:

      The Yanks are a bit closer than us so they might be able to do that for us, especially as they now have lots of spare, battle-hardened GIs home from Eyerak.

  18. 45
    Blood is thicker than water says:

    As Ed is a communist, then of course he has to support the EUSSR.

  19. 46
    genghiz the kahn says:

    If he speaks for Merkozy and not Britain, is it any wonder that the Hunt is in trouble.

    He is more useless than Nick Clegg, but at least he won’t be called Prime Minister by Bercow the dwarf.

  20. 48
    Fish says:

    It’s not just Milliweed who has miscalulated. Clegg is now dead in the water.

    Clegg’s description of Britain as a Pigmy nation at the week-end will come back to haunt him and will be replayed over and over again if he manges to hang on until the next GE campaign.

    Clegg is now seriously damaged. That huhne, Huhne know this which is why he is on manouevres once more. Another low calibre fantacist lacking in self awareness. Anyway, HTF does he expect to run a GE campaign from Pentonville?

    • 54
      Durr... says:

      Yes, going to bed and leaving Dave to “negotiate” with Merkozi was a mistake. Not turning up for PMQs another.

    • 56
      Big Ears says:

      I agree. He is a dead man walking. His self-loathing as a Dutchman pretending to be British finally got to him and he let his mask slip. The best thing for Clegg would be to keep his mouth shut for the rest of this Parliamnet and then go and live in Spain with his wife, as he has no long-term future in this country.

    • 119
      Rhonddapurple says:

      The annihilation of the LibDems was almost certain the day they signed up to coalition with the Conservatives. Europe was a trap that even hitherto undiscovered tribes of Pygmies in the Congo valley with no interest in politics were warning them about. Thought everybody knew.

  21. 58
    Loungelizard says:

    Blair gave back the rebate, Brown signed the Treaty of Servitude, Miliband just wants a photo op of him signing something surrounded by important looking foreigners. A little something for the vanity wall back at Labour HQ.

    • 65
      Big Ears says:

      He can get the same effect by applying for the dole at any local job centre. No shortage of foreigners working in our public services these days.

    • 66
      Cato Street Conspirator says:

      And Thatcher signed the Single European Act in 1986 – ‘The SEA embodied a vision of a European Community where integration was real and covered a large number of areas. It also made it easier to pass EU legislation by loosening the voting rules in the Council of Ministers, which suggests a vision of ever deeper union.’

  22. 63
    Cato Street Conspirator says:

    I don’t think many people at the top of the Labour party will be too unhappy – if there have to be cuts (and all agree there have to be) better than the Tories and Lib Dems carry the can for them. Labour can afford to lose the next election (as they were lucky enough to do in 1992) and get back in the one after.

    • 78
      Engineer says:

      “….Labour can afford to lose the next election….”

      Labour can’t afford to fight the next election. Also, their problem is that a majority of the public think their analysis of current economic problems is flawed, and their solutions unworkable. They are also seen as strongly Europhile in an increasingly Eurosceptic atmosphere of public opinion.

      • 109
        Cato Street Conspirator says:

        As I said. Labour can afford to lose the next election and let the Tories and Lib Dems carry out the cuts. Losing in 1992 was a useful thing for Labour because it enabled Lamont to sod things up and discredit the Tories for 13 years.

        • 131
          Anon. says:

          Losing the 1992 election was a grievous blow for Labour and only a socialist could spin it as a positive thing! I could equally say that Lamont getting it wrong meant doubts were cast on Britain having the Euro, which probably saved us from joining.

  23. 64
    Ryan says:

    So the public don’t like Ed because he’s not right-wing enough, and Labour members don’t like Ed because he’s not left-wing enough.

    Labour are screwed aren’t they really?

  24. 68
    genghiz the kahn says:

    Bet that fare dodging know it all Zoe Williams won’t be ‘forgetting’ to pay her bus or train fare if Guardian readers have their way or if the Big Man is in the same vehicle.

  25. 69
    Eustace Rogers-Knightleigh says:

    That vote is sure to trickle back up after the initial veto-honeymoon for Dave…

    Well, it might, unless Dave finally realises his drive to the centre actually cost him a lot of support.

    Question is, whether Dave will make that connection.

  26. 71
    Old Git says:

    Dave ain’t gonna do anything until Labour’s rigged boundaries are corrected in 2013. And anyway the fixed term parliament thingy bill was passed recently so it’s gonna be 2015 for the next election.

    • 85
      Engineer says:

      ….by which time the Euro will probably have collapsed, taking a fair chunk of the EU superstate machinery with it, confirming the wisdom of Dave’s refusal to be dragged into saving the moribund currency.

    • 90
      Cell time says:

      Why Tories didn’t plan on sorting out the BBC whilst in opposition to coincide with the boundary changes remains a mystery to me. Massive advantage to Labour that could and should be negated.

      • 92
        Cell time says:

        Oh, and I think Caroline Flint has the look of the slum about her.

        • 97
          Alzheimer's has always worked for me says:

          She’s common. She ought to be behind the pie counter at Lidl.

          • Rhonddapurple says:

            Do they have pie counters at Lidl? When I went there they had mountains of Bockwurst and Slovakian pasta stacked on plastic pallets.

    • 95
      Axe The Telly Tax says:

      In that case Dave can ignore the Fib Dems and implement real Tory policies.

  27. 73
    Harris Tottle says:

    Milliband and Clegg do not believe in facts they distort their socialist programming, as was very evident in Mondays debate. Looking forward to today’s PMQ’s for another episode of “let’s ask the same stupid question 50 times”. Cameron should get a medal for coolness under fire from fake rage.

    • 112
      Cato Street Conspirator says:

      Let me get this straight. Clegg and Miliband are ‘socialists’. That, presumably, is why Clegg sits with Cameron in Cabinet and supports the government’s ‘socialist’ policies of privatising the NHS and destroying the public sector?

  28. 74
    Gordon Brown MP (part time) says:

    I’m always available. You love me really and miss my wit and vision.

    The Ed’n’Ed show was just a temporary diversion to let me finish my top-rated book. There is talk of a filmed version, possibly starring Higgs Boson and Susan Boyle. A sure-fire winner.

  29. 87
    anon says:

    A friend of mine in the BBC tells me that they have just altered the viewing schedules over Christmas to remove ‘Zulu’, ‘The Dambusters’ and ‘The Great Escape’ amongst others because they are Jingoistic and anti-european, pandering to the new found sense of national pride.

  30. 89
    Britannia says:

    Stuff Europe. They are living in cloud cuckoo land.

    They reckon we put our country first, Europe second and only regard the EU as a free market.

    Well they are right. That is EXACTLY what we believe. And that is the right belief. No British person should lay down his life for Brussels

  31. 94
    tube-thumper says:

    the ego on the fat title tatler is becoming comical. Who the fuck does Guido think is going to take his rather silly political strategy suggestion seriously

    what a Hunt

  32. 133
    Vicki Vermin, the pest you can't control. says:

    A boy in Chav Inch High luks like Ed. He is in with the remedials n he gets his bonce washed in the lav. They call him milimong.

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Guido-hot-button (1) Guido-hot-button (1)

Cathy Jamieson MP, Labour’s Shadow Treasury minister, commenting on Treasury analysis of the economic impact of tax changes…

“If the Treasury is looking at the economic impact of tax changes, then surely it should examine the impact of the rise in VAT and cuts to tax credits? George Osborne’s £12 billion VAT rise knocked confidence, helped to choke off the recovery and has cost families £1,350 over the last three years.”

orkneylad says:

What’s he been doing FFS, mining bitcoins?

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