UK Now Safer Haven than Germany

Over at the “evidence based” LeftFootFoward blog they have an opinion piece claiming “Osborne’s ‘safe haven’ view is delusional”. Let’s examine the evidence, starting with Sovereign Credit Default Swap rates:

Exhibit A

CDS rates reflect the cost of insuring against the risk of default. UK gilts have got their edge back, German government bunds are now seen by international markets as a higher risk than British gilts. So Osborne is right to claim that Britain is seen as a safe haven, with the resultant benefit of lower cost long term borrowing. Guido’s second piece of evidence is the disparity between German and UK government borrowing rates:

Exhibit B

German 5-year borrowing rate: 1.41%

UK 5-year borrowing rate: 1.29%

UK rates are lower, though not as low as that other traditional European safe haven, Switzerland, where interest rates have turned negative. This means that effectively you have to pay the bank to deposit Swiss francs. Below are last night’s closing money market rates for Swiss LIBOR futures, usually quoted as 100 minus the rate, they are now confusingly trading above 100 meaning that money market rates are now negative. Not something Guido has ever seen before…


Elsewhere in Europe the banking system teeters on the edge of disaster. Anecdotally there are tales of Italians driving their Alfa Romeos across the border to convert their paper euros into hard currency in Switzerland. To paraphrase Sarah Palin: How is that monetary unity thing working out for europhiles?



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Liam Fox shreds Cameron’s Calais scaremongering:

“Sad and disappointed to see our Prime Minister stoop to this level of scaremongering, especially as he knows the Calais agreement is nothing to do with the EU and agreed between the two govts”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Squandermania: Roof Not Fixed Squandermania: Roof Not Fixed
OSBORNE’S BROTHER STRUCK OFF: READ RULING, THREATENING EMAILS OSBORNE’S BROTHER STRUCK OFF: READ RULING, THREATENING EMAILS
HAPPY AS LARRY: SANDERS NEW GREEN PARTY SPOKESPERSON HAPPY AS LARRY: SANDERS NEW GREEN PARTY SPOKESPERSON
LABOUR CAMPAIGN CHIEF: “WE HAD NO STRATEGY” LABOUR CAMPAIGN CHIEF: “WE HAD NO STRATEGY”
CLEGG’S ASTRONOMICAL SPAD BILL HYPOCRISY CLEGG’S ASTRONOMICAL SPAD BILL HYPOCRISY
STRICTLY CYMRU DANCING: LEANNE WOOD’S WONDERFUL WALTZ STRICTLY CYMRU DANCING: LEANNE WOOD’S WONDERFUL WALTZ
LEAVE AHEAD WITH ICM LEAVE AHEAD WITH ICM
HAPPY ‘I HEART UNIONS’ DAY HAPPY ‘I HEART UNIONS’ DAY
CORBYN WEARS SPONSORS’ BADGE CORBYN WEARS SPONSORS’ BADGE
Open Minded Herbert’s Made His Mind Up Open Minded Herbert’s Made His Mind Up
Amazon’s Lawyers Prepare for Zombie Apocalypse Amazon’s Lawyers Prepare for Zombie Apocalypse
PMQs (Rap Version) PMQs (Rap Version)
Top Europhile Defects to Out Campaign Top Europhile Defects to Out Campaign
BARROSO: BRAKE WON’T PUT OFF MIGRANTS BARROSO: BRAKE WON’T PUT OFF MIGRANTS
PESTON OUT OF THE LOOP PESTON OUT OF THE LOOP
LABOUR’S CONSISTENT FLIP-FLOPPING ON SURVEILLANCE LABOUR’S CONSISTENT FLIP-FLOPPING ON SURVEILLANCE
UBER TRIES TO KILL HAILO UBER TRIES TO KILL HAILO
CALAMITY CORBYN’S COMICAL CAMPAIGN COCK-UP CALAMITY CORBYN’S COMICAL CAMPAIGN COCK-UP
PARLIAMENTARY PANCAKE RACE (INSERT MANDATORY TOSSER JOKE HERE) PARLIAMENTARY PANCAKE RACE (INSERT MANDATORY TOSSER JOKE HERE)
SADIQ LOSES IT WITH BBC JOURNALIST OVER TFL FARES SUMS SADIQ LOSES IT WITH BBC JOURNALIST OVER TFL FARES SUMS
FRENCH GOVERNMENT DISPUTES CAMERON ON CALAIS FRENCH GOVERNMENT DISPUTES CAMERON ON CALAIS
EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT
EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT? EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT?
TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING
LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF
CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS” CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS”
SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK
HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER? HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER?
KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER
Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers