UK Now Safer Haven than Germany

Over at the “evidence based” LeftFootFoward blog they have an opinion piece claiming “Osborne’s ‘safe haven’ view is delusional”. Let’s examine the evidence, starting with Sovereign Credit Default Swap rates:

Exhibit A

CDS rates reflect the cost of insuring against the risk of default. UK gilts have got their edge back, German government bunds are now seen by international markets as a higher risk than British gilts. So Osborne is right to claim that Britain is seen as a safe haven, with the resultant benefit of lower cost long term borrowing. Guido’s second piece of evidence is the disparity between German and UK government borrowing rates:

Exhibit B

German 5-year borrowing rate: 1.41%

UK 5-year borrowing rate: 1.29%

UK rates are lower, though not as low as that other traditional European safe haven, Switzerland, where interest rates have turned negative. This means that effectively you have to pay the bank to deposit Swiss francs. Below are last night’s closing money market rates for Swiss LIBOR futures, usually quoted as 100 minus the rate, they are now confusingly trading above 100 meaning that money market rates are now negative. Not something Guido has ever seen before…


Elsewhere in Europe the banking system teeters on the edge of disaster. Anecdotally there are tales of Italians driving their Alfa Romeos across the border to convert their paper euros into hard currency in Switzerland. To paraphrase Sarah Palin: How is that monetary unity thing working out for europhiles?



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Out of the bubble prole Andy Burnham tells Mumsnet

“I’m afraid I’m going to depress you all by saying that I don’t have a sweet tooth and don’t eat biscuits… Give me a beer and chips and gravy any day.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

How Diane Remembers Jezza How Diane Remembers Jezza
Abby Turns Fandy Abby Turns Fandy
Just Good Comrades? Just Good Comrades?
ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH: LAS VEGAS EDITION ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH: LAS VEGAS EDITION
DIANE ABBOTT FORGETS SHE DIDN’T THINK CORBYN COULD WIN DIANE ABBOTT FORGETS SHE DIDN’T THINK CORBYN COULD WIN
NATWEST’S ONLINE BANKING CRASHES ON PAYDAY NATWEST’S ONLINE BANKING CRASHES ON PAYDAY

OWEN JONES: LIE-RA OWEN JONES: LIE-RA
GMB UNION SUE UBER GMB UNION SUE UBER
Who Will Be UKIP’s Mayoral Candidate? Who Will Be UKIP’s Mayoral Candidate?
Meanwhile, in Venezuela… Meanwhile, in Venezuela…
TWITTER EMPLOYEES JUMP FROM SINKING SHIP TWITTER EMPLOYEES JUMP FROM SINKING SHIP
Times Trolls Burnham Times Trolls Burnham
CHAMPAGNE SOCIALISTS BACK CORBYN CHAMPAGNE SOCIALISTS BACK CORBYN
SINN FEIN SHOULD “TAKE INSPIRATION” FROM ARMED UPRISING SINN FEIN SHOULD “TAKE INSPIRATION” FROM ARMED UPRISING
ALL CHANGE AT GREEN PARTY HQ ALL CHANGE AT GREEN PARTY HQ
I Can’t Believe He’s Not Tory! I Can’t Believe He’s Not Tory!
UBER DESTROYING RACIST TAXI INDUSTRY UBER DESTROYING RACIST TAXI INDUSTRY
Could Labour Fall Apart Under Corbyn? Could Labour Fall Apart Under Corbyn?
Hilarious Prankster Hilarious Prankster
GREENPEACE LIVID GREENPEACE LIVID
Did Labour Leadership Candidates Smoke Dope? Did Labour Leadership Candidates Smoke Dope?
Another Andy Flip Flop Another Andy Flip Flop
Clegg Whores Himself Out Clegg Whores Himself Out
RETURN OF THE FRACKERS, CUADRILLA TO APPEAL RETURN OF THE FRACKERS, CUADRILLA TO APPEAL
FLASHBACK: TORY WHIP ON SCANDAL INVOLVING “SMALL BOYS” FLASHBACK: TORY WHIP ON SCANDAL INVOLVING “SMALL BOYS”
“Owen Jones is the 1%” “Owen Jones is the 1%”
Jedward Told to “F**k Off” By Indy Staff Jedward Told to “F**k Off” By Indy Staff
CLIMATE LOBBY DRAFT ARNIE CLIMATE LOBBY DRAFT ARNIE
MOD FORCED TO FIGHT RUSSIAN AGGRESSION… WITH TWEETDECK MOD FORCED TO FIGHT RUSSIAN AGGRESSION… WITH TWEETDECK