Guido is off to the Excel centre to watch the No Campaign votes pour in. The Prime Minister said this morning that “there will be no celebrating, there will be no congratulations.” He also made it clear on Thursday that he wasn’t part of the official No campaign, so Guido’s not sure they will be acting on that particular memo…
With YouGov polling people who voted yesterday and finding a 62%/38% No win it could be a long night…
It seems appropriate that Kirkcaldy, Jonah Brown’s home town, provided the SNP with their majority. Saorsa!
The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. If it was not for Murdoch, the City and the editor of the Daily Mail they would lead us into the social democratic utopia that the people so desire. That is basically the underlying worldview of many at the BBC, Guardian editorial meetings and the young wonks in the think-tanks around Ed Miliband. Tony Blair understood that this was a delusion which electorally crippled the Labour Party and the somewhat flakier LibDems. He fashioned a left-of-centre platform which addressed the real concerns of voters.
The British people are sceptical about “progressives”, their language and their disconnection from the reality of their lives. The “progressive” idea that switching to the Alternative Vote was important to ordinary people, who are not on the whole interested in politics, was delusional. There is no untapped progressive majority outside the media and political elites.
It is one thing to be youthful and idealistically progressive, believing if only we cared and shared everything would be alright. When you become a taxpayer, parent or home owner you are mugged by reality. Caring and sharing with your family becomes your priority, that is human nature. The amount of your salary that goes to HMRC, the fear of crime, a desire for better schools for your children and the cost of petrol become more important priorities. Guido speaks to Labour Party supporters who think that Ed Miliband is overly influenced by “progressive” voices, his support for switching to the Alternative Vote shows that in truth Ed Miliband is himself a “progressive”. Voters are not.
The local government campaigning experts the LibDems have lost every councillor in Manchester, control of Sheffield, and the decapitation of their council leaders across the north. They are 340 councillors down, with less than half of counts having declared. Labour are crowing abut gains in places they were already strong. Cleggy got a spanking and the first call for his resignation has come, yet the Tory vote seems to be holding.
North of the border the Sun will be claiming they won it, as Alex Salmond has come from behind in the polls to humiliate Miliband in his heartlands. With the SNP on course for a majority win, Scotland are an inch closer to having to work out how to fund their own bloated welfare state. If Miliband can’t win here, it’s bad news for him. Scottish Labour are in turmoil this morning and apparently raging at the simple assumption that the disillusioned LibDems would come flocking to Red Ed. Iain Gray, the Scottish leader, came within a hairs breadth of a scalping.
The AV result out at 9pm tonight is rumoured to be hammering for Yes.
Going to stay up have a few drinks, watch the politicians make excuses and go to bed before the results are in.
Feel free to amuse yourself and mock the afflicted in the comments. Expect it to be a 1000 seat gain for Labour. Guido expects a very bad night for LibDems and moderately bad for Tories…
Only big bet Guido had was on the Tories coming second in the Leicester South by-election. Some dosh on the SNP giving Labour a kicking in Scotland. Will lose a few quid on the AV vote due to being a bit too clever and trying to buy a Yes bounce. It never came…
Polling Averages Trend | PoliticalBetting.com
Speaker Faces Questions Over Pass for Donor | Sun
Tory MPs’ Visit to Israel Condemned | Guardian
Labour Was Too Slow for the Squeezed Middle | FT
Papers Pan Cam’s Immigration Pledge | ConHome
Deane of St Edmundsbury? | Times
Pay Volunteers and They Become Cheap Labour | Jill Kirby
UKIP Fundraiser Was Jailed for Running Brothels | Times
Bercow Faces Probe Over Pass Mystery | Mirror
Harman Breaks Rules on Paying Staff | Express
Labour Whinge About Sandi Toksvig Joke | Mail
John McTernan told Channel 4 News…
“You can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, you don’t win in politics without breaking legs.”
What time will dinner be ready this evening?
Rob Wilson MP
In the interests of me I am placing a copy of this email in the public domain.