April 14th, 2011

State of the Race

Whisper it quietly, but is the AV referendum campaign finally gearing up? Osborne and Danny Alexander have scraped in the papers, which must have made for an interesting morning meeting in the Treasury today. The Indy seem to be the only one who thinks Yes calling in lawyers looks good. Meanwhile sports stars have lined up to scratch their heads and say “huh?” for the No campaign, pushing the powerful “winner-may-not-win” line. And in typical style the New Statesman says AV is crap, but wants people to not think and just vote for it anyway stop the evil Tories. Glad they have the best interests of country rather than party at heart. Not much of a shift in the polls and No still well ahead with the bookies this morning.


120 Comments

  1. 1
    from Spain says:

    morning all

    Like

    • 6
      The rain says:

      Good morning to the Plain in Spain.

      Like

    • 9
      Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

      Its not morning in the USA :-)

      Like

    • 13
      misterned says:

      And the terminally unfunny Mr Steve Coogan calls all those who vote for the NO campaign “dicks!”

      Lot’s of rational and reasoned argument again from Coogan, a comedian who delights in peedophile humour.

      If I ever needed any extra reason to vote no, besides all those carefully weighed up and rationally made arguments listed at av2011.co.uk, then Coogan, Izzard, Fry et al provide more than enough additional reasons to vote no.

      Besides, if that fuckwit Coogan thinks I am a dick, then I must be doing something right!

      Like

      • 22
        The Duke of Edinburgh says:

        “peedophile”? Should one wear a raincoat at such an encounter?

        Like

      • 26
        sockpuppet #4 says:

        I have been grossly unimpressed with some of the NOtoAV strategies.

        And I don’t give a shit about celebs. Its illogical to tell me to vote a certain way because theres some sort of emotional taint of agreeing with a fat bloke in a dress. Or for that matter a fat bloke who’s not keen on those who arrived after the last ice age.

        Like

        • 45
          Scottspeig says:

          Or in fact get paid to decieve the viewer (actors)

          Like

          • sockpuppet #4 says:

            I don’t mind that. I really believe that tiff off eastenders does indeed feel better because of the yohgurt she eats, and indeed it does “work for her”

            Like

        • 93
          misterned says:

          I know you have sockpuppet, to be honest I have been unimpressed that they claim that AV will lead to more coalitions and that AV will help the BNP. The Yes bunch are as bad as they have Nick Griffin on their referendum posters too.

          I have based most (99%) of my support for the No on a number of scenario tests which had the most popular single candidate in an election being ousted by the multiple preferences of the supporters of fringe parties, whereas many of the preferences of the leading two parties’ supporters are not counted at all.

          What gets me most is when most voters either backed the eventual winner, or had their multiple preferences counted, those who backed the most popular candidate (who ended up coming second) with their first preference vote only had one preference vote counted, had all their other preferences uncounted and their vote for the most popular candidate still loses.

          Like

      • 38
        I hate luvvies says:

        Perhaps if anyone happens to pass any of these, luvvie Liebour devotees, in the street can you just crack them across the chops, either with a fist or some kind blunt instrument. This, momentarily at least, may jolt them back into reality from cloud cuckoo land, as they feel the pain and perhaps they will see the error of their ways and realsie that just becuase they have some fame and notoriety, that they should stop embarassing themselves and this country and stop lecturing the rest of us on things they know fvck all about!

        Like

  2. 2

    Nothing beats a good scrape.

    Like

  3. 3
    "Osborne and Danny Alexander have scraped in the papers" says:

    Is this gay slang for some weird sex act Hague taught them ?

    Like

  4. 4
    sockpuppet #4 says:

    AV is crap. But No2AV is crapper.

    Like

  5. 5
    Gagging Luvvie says:

    More importantly who is the Luvvie who’s been shagging Roony’s hooker?

    Like

  6. 7
    I says:

    Trouble with spellcheck Guido is that scraped and scrapped will both pass!

    Like

  7. 8
    Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

    Its not the voting system that needs changing , is the arseholes within the system that need changing , They are all there for the ride on the gravy train not for the best intrests of the country.

    RIP Danny Fiszman

    Like

  8. 10
    Smelly Old man says:

    Thank heavens that Billy Bowlegs isn’t here today.

    Like

  9. 18
    Gordon Brown says:

    I read in my favourite paper the Daily Mail that I am favourite to lead the IMF.
    And I thought I was crackers.

    Like

    • 77
      Up shit creek says:

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1376712/Brown-clear-favourite-head-IMF-Osborne-fight-stop-him.html

      Gordon “saved the world” from financial collapse don’t you know! Bullsh1t PR to boost his image.

      But let’s not mention the useless FSA Gordon set up which allowed the bankers to defraud taxpayers. Let’s not mention how Labour (and now the coalition) asset strip the savers to keep the borrowers from defaulting on their dirt cheap loans. Let’s not mention Labour massively devalued the UK Pound (again). Let’s not mention Quantitative Easing is ravaging the UK economy.

      Yes, with all those “qualifications”, must make Gordon a front runner for the IMF, aka International Monetary Fraudsters.

      Like

      • 97
        Not a chance says:

        Brown has a terrible reputation for economic competance and a history of mental fragility. Not a chance of him becoming head of IMF.

        This is bullshit paper talk like the crap about Blair becoming EU president. All crap designed to fill empty column inches and boost the very damaged public image of these turds.

        Like

    • 111
      joolz says:

      Hey just seen my local Hospital (in blackburn) will pay 638Million pounds interest on YOUR PFI scam, only 38 years left to pay for a hospital that cost 130Million

      And you want to run the IMF, should be ruin the IMF

      Like

  10. 19

    1st choice vote – No
    2nd choice vote – Yes

    Should keep all the whips happy with that one.

    What’s really causing my YES to be guarded is AV was how Harman, first choice of nobody, become the deputy leader.

    Like

  11. 20
    RED ED - SON OF BROWN says:

    I say Yes2AV because that’s how I stabbed by brother in the back.

    HOW ED MILIBAND WON

    Round 1: David Miliband 37.78%, Ed Miliband 34.33% Diane Abbott eliminated
    Round 2: David Miliband 38.89%, Ed Miliband 37.47%. Andy Burnham eliminated
    Round 3: David Miliband 42.72%, Ed Miliband 41.26%, Ed Balls eliminated
    Round 4: David Miliband 49.35%, Ed Miliband 50.65%. Ed Miliband wins.

    http://bbc.in/8Y9aeQ

    Like

  12. 21
    Anonymous says:

    When the liebour party voted for their new leader didn’t they use the av system ? And look what they got, certainly not the canditate they really wanted.

    Say No to av, unless you want to be governed by a load of second raters

    Like

    • 23
      Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

      We are already governed by second raters!

      Like

      • 37
        ZX says:

        Great! so we shouldn’t bother changing the system spending 120 mill + to give Kinnock and E.R.S. another hung taxpayer bung also giving that useless bunch of self obsessed anal retentive narcissistic 2 faces bitch class of 97 lurvies the satisfaction of believing ‘they won it!’

        Like

    • 24
      RED ED - SON OF BROWN says:

      Actually, I thought I was third rate; thanks for the compliment.

      Like

    • 32
      A nurse writes says:

      what do you mean: ‘want to be governed by a load of second raters’ we fucking well are now!

      Like

      • 42
        I don't need no doctor says:

        Done any work today nursey?

        Like

      • 44
        Unison head office says:

        Why are you on here? you should using hospital time for something more important like stuffing Labour ballot papers for the great postal voting dawn under Eddie baby!

        Like

    • 41
      Desperate Guido says:

      The Conservatives also used a multi round system for their leadership election and ended up with David Cameron instead of David Davis who won in the first round. How many people think the Conservatives would be the largest party now if they’d used pure FPTP for elections?

      Like

      • 69
        Mike Hunt says:

        Multi-round is not the same as AV.

        In each round, every vote carries the same weight. In AV some votes are more important than others and so get counted more than once.

        Like

        • 89
          Desperate Guido says:

          Thats complete bollocks. In AV, all the people who vote in that given round are equally important just as in a multi-round run off system. There’s a reason AV is often called the ‘instant run off’ system.

          Like

        • 106
          misterned says:

          Correct Mike, Multiple counting rounds should have multiple voting rounds with a last past the post eliminated, then fresh voting for every round. Then, all of EVERYONE’s votes are counted every time.

          With AV you can vote once and back the most popular candidate with your first choice, have several other choices, but not have those choices counted at all, because those candidates are eliminated over the multiple rounds of voting.

          Whereas a less popular candidate can win from the lower preference votes of those who have had every preference counted along the way.

          Like

      • 86
        Not a chance says:

        Nope. Not a chance. Maybe we have a ore accurate reflection of events.
        Davis was going to get butchered as a silver-hared right winger by the w ankers at the BBC. They were already taking that line when he was favourite to win. That is why many switched to Cameron in later ballots as he was amuch more difficult target for the BBC.

        By 2007 when Brown wanted an election, Davis would have been finished and McRuin would have called and election and won it, maybe not by much but the boundaries would have ensured a Labour victory. It would also mean that Cameron, most likely, would have then been made leader of Conservatives.

        However, that would mean that Labour would get an extra 2 years and the real shit pile that the coalition has to deal with would have been on Labour’s head to sort out and by 2012 they would be even more unpopular than in 2010 and the Conservatives would have won by a bigger margin and got a majority, depending on how much more gerrymandering and postal vote rigging Labour cold organise in the extra 2 years.

        Like

  13. 25
    No says:

    Shame about the “Yes” campaign ad featuring one-eyed Nick at the top of the page.

    Like

  14. 29
    The third way says:

    So why don’t they just bring in AV as a trial for the next election to see if it works or not, and then hold a referendum based on that to see if people want it or not?

    Like

  15. 30
    The wrong Miliband says:

    I must say that Griffin coming out for the NO vote seems like a very powerful argument for the YES vote – unless it’s a cunning plan and he’s actually lying.

    Like

    • 64
      Don't be fooled says:

      The B&P get nowhere with FPTP or AV it doesn’t make a blind bit difference for them.

      But Griffin has to side with the stupid end of the white working class as they won’t want to be seen to agree with Militwit and the lefty multi-culturalists.

      Or perhaps Griffin is really a YES to AV man and knew that they would use his support for teh NO campaign against them?

      Like

    • 68
      What the thick lefties refuse to believe says:

      If AV gets passed the B*P will get into parliament.

      It is simply a mathematical inevitably despite sad act left wingers claiming and believing they won’t.

      Like

      • 71
        Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

        So? Its a fucker when people dont vote the way you want, Its called democrcy.

        Like

    • 104
      Disgusted of Neasden says:

      To get elected under AV, a candidate would need 50% of the electorate to mark them SOMEWHERE in their list of preferences. Given that a majority of people would NEVER give any preference to Mr Griffin’s party, then he would stand LESS chance under AV than under FPTP.

      Like

      • 112
        misterned says:

        Trufax!!!

        Besides, at the Euro-elections (where PR allows people to cast a vote for whoever they wish in what many believe to be a safely fake election) UKIP managed 2,498,226 votes, Greens 1.3million and B&P polled less than a million.

        To get anywhere near being in a position of real power in the UK general election, one would need to have at least 9.5 million active supporters willing to vote for your party, or win about 6 million votes to be a junior partner in a coalition.

        B&P, Green and UKIP are no where near those levels as yet. Although, UKIP may get to coalition partner size over the course of this Parliament IF the EU, or the European council, or the European Commission or the European Court of human rights makes enough trouble.

        The B&P are being shafted in court, and are suffering defections to even more fringe parties all over the place, so will not be in any position to seriously fight for a single seat, unless most of their supporters actually all move house into one constituency (how the Greens got one MP). They are nowhere near even close to imagining being able to consider the merest possibility of ever forming an actual government.

        Like

        • 114
          Disgusted of Neasden says:

          Splits in small parties don’t help their cause, of course.

          Note that the EU elections are a Party List system. The effect of this is that you get to vote for the party, and the public don’t get to choose between the candidates the party puts up. If you don’t like your party’s no. 1 candidate, then all you can do is vote for another party.

          Under a party-list system, or multi-member STV, then yes, minority parties are likely to gain some representation. But hey, aren’t we supposed to be a democracy?

          Like

  16. 31
    Down with Brown! says:

    It’s a shame STV or AMS aren’t options in the referendum. There are problems with First Past the Post, for example safe seats for troughers, but AV solves none of them. Vote no!

    Like

    • 39
      Lard Presclott of Bulimia, Bog Seats, Beams,Bellies,Banjos,Punches, Croquet, Pies, Jags 'n' Shags says:

      My seat would have been safe under FPTP, AV, Proportional Representation or a raffle.

      Like

    • 57
      Tommy says:

      We need a referendum on whether to use AV for a referendum on voting reform.

      FPTP
      AV – 3
      AV+ – 2
      STV – 1

      Like

  17. 40
    Postal Vote says:

    But the Yes camp will win it with the huge help from me and the likes …

    My peers and myself can’t help it, even regret it, but we are in high demand by Labour and we help them hugely.

    Like

    • 43
      Postal Vote says:

      forgot my morning arithmetic (not that is that challenging)

      Client state (6 million in public sector + millions on benefits) + AV + Postal Votes = Labour rule into eternity

      Like

  18. 47
    I don't need no doctor says:

    Have labour got any policies yet?
    Is the sheet of paper still blank?

    Like

    • 50
      Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

      Print, borrow and spend plus raise taxes .

      Like

      • 75
        Mike Hunt says:

        You mean the same as always then.

        Like

        • 113
          misterned says:

          Not quite.

          Labour inherited a golden economic legacy in 1997. From 1997 – 1999 labour froze all spending, keeping it at “tory levels” for two years. The cuts which ensued were blamed (by labour and their PR wings in the mainstream media) on the tory spending plans. In those two years spending in real terms fell by more than it is falling currently.

          Then after that two years, during which time labour had 3 tax raising budgets, labour opened the floodgates on tax and spend.

          Like

  19. 48
    Jane Pilgrim says:

    Who fancies a trip to Wagamama?

    Like

  20. 53
    Eeu to me says:

    I’ve made my mind up which way I will vote and the zzza list of celebs helped me to decide which way, NOT, if politician’s are pushing this crap then it’s not to help Public Service it’s to help themselves, ban the postal vote, then maybe we will get some honest voting if people have to show up to vote.

    Like

  21. 54
  22. 59
    from Spain says:

    just finished reading the online papers re Cameron’s speech to day on immigration if not all are in agreement to many coming in or already in,
    but the Guardian what fucking world do these people live in.
    Now switched to blaming us brits for not learning Spanish.FFS

    Like

    • 87
      Typical Guardian Reader Belief says:

      White people are evil and have caused all the worlds problems from the dawn of time……..

      Like

  23. 60

    AV voting to find the biggest Luvvie.

    Rank in order of luvviness.
    If no luvvie achieves 50% then second preference luviness votes are added from the bottom luvvie, who is eliminated, I think..well..something like that.

    1. Stephen Fry
    2. Alan Partridge
    3. Eddie Izzard
    4. Ballsdrick
    5. King George
    6. Gower
    7. Akabusi

    Like

    • 85
      Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

      Surely Elton John must come into that somewhere? He’s like a fucking pantomime dame these days.

      Like

  24. 61
    Cato Street Conspirator says:

    The people to convince are the people who believe in proportional representation – got them to vote against and we are home and dry.

    Like

  25. 63

    Vince Cable criticising Cameron’s immigration speech.

    {Quite pleased with this. We worked it out with Limps the other day. Get Dave to appeal to the ‘right wing’ and allows liberals to defend their ‘left flank’. it will be trailed as splits in the coalition, but really its just pre election puffing.}

    Like

  26. 65
    Jane Pilgrim says:

    I enjoyed my shopping trip to John Lewis. Oops, I mean staff empowerment visit to John Lewis.

    Like

  27. 67
    Gordon Brown says:

    ooh nana what is my name

    Like

  28. 70
    Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

    Well I did see a delightful advert on this site yesterday from the “Yes” campaign implying that a “No” vote helps out Nick Griffin and the BNP.

    They really are sleazy low life – persuasion either way should be based on the positive case.

    Like

  29. 73
    Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

    Well I did see a delightful advert on this site yesterday from the “Yes” campaign implying that a “No” vote helps out N*ck Gr*ff*n and the B&P.

    They really are sleazy low life – persuasion either way should be based on the positive case.

    Like

    • 92
      Cynical-old-bag says:

      This is Mr Kinn*ck and his pals going to every length possible, to make absolutely sure that the electorate know that a No vote will let in the B*P.

      What nice people we elect.

      Like

  30. 74
    Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

    I agree with Lord Gower.

    Like

  31. 79
    He_never_married says:

    New poll unshock:

    Are you interested in AV referendum:

    64,999,999 – No
    Guido: Yes

    Like

  32. 80
    Up shit creek says:

    The people will vote No to AV, but they are never happy with that kind of result, so like the EUSSR, they will re-run the vote until they get the result they want.

    Like

    • 94
      Cynical-old-bag says:

      They kept doing it with the euro vote until Ireland gave the right answer, didn’t they.

      Like

      • 107
        Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

        In the French and Dutch case they ignored the referendum, put a different coloured cover on the document, pretended it was new and went ahead anyway.

        Like

  33. 82
    Gill Duffy says:

    Wait for my endorsement for a real game changer.

    Like

  34. 83
    Gill Duffee unmodded says:

    Wait for my endorsement for a real game changer.

    Like

  35. 84
    Jane Pilgrim says:

    I’m a union rep AND Labour party member. That means I’m minted! Ha ha! I love money! It’s fun claiming to care about ordinary people, and then going on a group jolly to John Lewis at their expense! Vote Labour! It keeps me in the dosh!

    Like

  36. 88
    Billy Bowden is the greatest umpire ever ! says:

    Right, London is about to be invaded by those benifit scroungers from Manchester this weekend , I reckon we should go up there and recliam all the stolen property :-)

    Like

  37. 90
    tardkiller says:

    FPTP and change the electoral boundries BACK to the old labour bias.

    simples

    Like

  38. 91
    Don't Participate in this sham says:

    THE ONLY ANSWER TO THIS SHAM IS TO NOT VOTE. There is little doubt that the fuure response to requests for an EU referendum will be that we have already had one on the voting system and we can’t keep having referendums. Just tell them to fuck off.

    Like

  39. 96
    revolutionary says:

    AV is the poor man’s PR

    Don’t be fooled by it

    Like

    • 103
      Officer Dibble says:

      True. Even the ERS say:

      as AV is not a proportional system, the Society does not regard it as suitable for the election of a representative body, e.g. a parliament, council, committees, etc

      Like

      • 109
        Disgusted of Neasden says:

        If you want single-member constituencies (as at present, which is probably a good thing), then AV is the single-member equivalent of STV.

        STV is probably best for elections in organisations with a common purpose – unions, professional bodies, etc. – where they have to elect, say, 6 committee members across the whole organisation, and it’s all down to personalities and shades of opinion. Where there is no common purpose, as in national or local elections, maybe STV isn’t the best idea.

        It would be interesting to try out STV for some local council elections, where multi-member constituencies are the norm. I know that in some cases these already return members from more than one party.

        Like

  40. 100

    I can’t tell you right now who’s going to win, but I can tell you who’s going to lose.

    Like

  41. 115
    AJS says:

    I saw a “No to fairer votes” campaign leaflet last night, and it reminded me of Young Earth Creationist propaganda.

    Let me put it this way. Candidate A supports viciously sodomising cute, fluffy kittens. Candidates B and C both oppose sodomising kittens, but disagree on whether beer should be served in pints or litres. Most people (who don’t agree with ailurophilia) vote for either candidate B or C. However, the vote is so closely split between B and C, that A eventually gets elected. And cute, fluffy kittens get viciously sodomised — against the wishes of the majority. This is the “No” campaign’s definition of fairness.

    Under AV, everyone who would rather have their beer served in litres if that means no kittens will be sodomised, than keep their beer in pints but allow kittens to be sodomised, would get a chance to use their second preference.

    It essentially means that the debate becomes focussed on issues, rather than names. Which has got to be a good thing.

    Like

    • 116
      John Wiltshire says:

      And you think that the 3 mains parties are clear about the issues? So you would have voted for the Lib Dem candidate, as their leader signed a pledge not to increase tuition fees… And what Ed’s policies are, heaven only knows. Cameraon’s are to make life miserable and kick the darkies out. Great choice of issues! How does that stack up under AV?

      Like

      • 118
        AJS says:

        Well, under AV, they will have to be clearer about the issues.

        Disclosure: I live in Derby North. Look up the results for that constituency in 2010 here:

        http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b34.stm

        All three main parties openly encouraged tactical voting (“X can’t win here ….. it’s us or Y ….. vote for us if you want to keep Y out”) in their election propaganda, and the minority parties polled enough votes between them to have swung it any way if their second preferences had been taken into account.

        Like

  42. 119
    Mica in Spain says:

    Its nice and sunny here in Spain Ha Ha

    Like


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Moral Bankruptcy of the BBC | David Keighley
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Boris Sent Up North | Times
The Only Way to Mend the EU | Leo McKinstry
Northern Labour Tearing Party Apart | David Aaronovitch
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Left on Left says:

The lefties are attacking because the panellist is a millionaire and lives in a London home worth upwards of two million. Someone had best tell them he’s called Ed Miliband.


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