Dave wants us to have some kind of gross national happiness index, an idea Sarkozy has also pushed. Not sure if the government really has any control over our overall happiness, it seems to Guido that governments mostly cause unhappiness and can do little to make us smile. The national mood is cheered by things like good weather, Royal Weddings and sporting victories which are beyond the government’s direct control.
Ronald Reagan popularised the idea of a “Misery Index” initiated by the economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s. It was simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate.
Given the budget deficit is the biggest economic challenge the country faces today, Guido’s Misery Index adds on the government’s deficit divided by the GDP taken from the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Retail Prices Index + Unemployment rate + ( Public Sector Net Cash Requirement / GDP ) = Misery Index
Plugging in the latest available figures for September 2010 gives you:
4.6% + 7.7% + (20.7 / 331.4 x 100) = 18.55
The Misery Index has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year. Misery rising even after Gordon has gone. Welcome to Tory Britain, it’s certainly blue.
N.B. Stats bods can check Guido’s adding up here.
Republican David Frum blogs…
“I had a chance to have dinner tonight with Gordon Brown, the former British PM. Big topic: getting into better physical shape post politics. Which, as it happens, is the top concern of so many retired politicians. Think of how much better Bill Clinton looks these days. So here’s the idea: The Retired World Leader Diet & Exercise book. Collate the post-political regimens of Helmut Kohl, Tony Blair, Al Gore etc. A perfect Father’s Day gift, no? Add the Berlusconi regime, and we can rate the thing “M” for mature.”
Guido’s Cameroon co-conspirator posits a theory for the celebratory back-slapping between Steve Hilton and Rohan Silva last night. Within Downing Street Rohan is (Guido kids you not) in charge of short term policy and James O’Shaughnessy is in charge of long term policy. There is no love lost between Hilton and O’Shaughnessy. Could the group hug last night be because, whispers Guido’s source, that Hilton has managed via some Machiavellian manoeuvres to arrange for O’Shaughnessy to be “promoted” sideways when he returns from paternity leave? Sideways as in “out-of-the-way”….
So as Andy Parsons and Nicky Woodhouse, David Cameron’s personal photographer and video staff are removed from the civil service pay-roll and put back on the CCHQ pay-roll where they belong, you can expect a swath of other embarrassing or negative stories to slip out today as the nation stifles a laugh as the BBC presenters keep forgetting that Kate is now Catherine…
If it wasnt for the royal wedding Labour would be making hay over the fact that the PM has rightfully backtracked and seen, at this time of cuts, that someone to keep his bald spot out of shot should not be paid for by the taxpayer. Not that it it’s an excuse, but as William Green reminds us, lest we forget Gordon had his own civil service image people.
UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal’s Iain Martin also noticed the strange correlation between between the wedding news and bad news from Downing Street.
William and Kate got engaged in October during a holiday in Kenya.
Late yesterday evening by Piccadilly tube station a smug looking sharp suited man and a scruffy looking bald chap in shorts and a red cycling jacket, made ready to head their separate ways.
Donning his red cap the slightly dishevelled looking chap unlocked his bike, before laughing and sharing a joke with his Underground bound companion. They then hugged like brothers in arms.
With the look on their smiling faces, Guido would love to know what it was Steve Hilton and Rohan Silva were plotting over drinks last night…
