On only his second day as leader Ed Miliband has come up a pretty big obstacle to his message on the economy – the IMF. Red Ed’s job has been made a lot harder by the IMF’s analysis that “the government’s strong and credible multi-year fiscal deficit reduction plan is essential to ensure debt sustainability.” Red Ed believes the Coalition’s plan is ‘economically dangerous’ whereas the IMF says it is ‘essential’.

In his keynote speech to conference tomorrow, the first time most of the voters will really see him, the broadsheet commentariat will be watching to see if he will call for a slower rate of deficit cutting than even Darling wanted before the election. He campaigned, like his rival Ed Balls, as a deficit denier so it remains to be seen if winning the leadership will see him dump his left-wing “Red Ed” campaign rhetoric. The IMF says the government’s plans are ‘appropriately ambitious” and will lead not to a double-dip recession but ‘sustainable recovery’. If this doesn’t trigger a rewrite of his campaign script then Red Ed is even more of a loser than his Blairite critics suggest…

One of the downsides of the Ed Miliband victory is we are now going to have to endure the slimy and arrogant Sadiq Khan coming to the forefront of the Labour team. The loyal campaign manager, who only just survived the election after a series of expenses misdemeanours, will have to be rewarded with a proper Shadow Cabinet post.

Khan’s outspoken foreign policy views rule him out of the FCO or defence. In a message to Ed Miliband supporters during the campaign Khan said Britain needed to support “a more independent foreign policy”, the subtext of which is in line with his rant last year that the UK’s relationship with the US was “poison”.

With little experience other than transport,  he is not qualified for the treasury and Khan has now gone favourite to replace Alan Johnson as Shadow Home Secretary, the position Ed Balls had his eye on if David Miliband, or Yvette, get the Shadow Chancellorship. Despite the fact that  both are instantly dislikeable on television and in person, struggling Teresa May would surely breathe a sigh of relief not to have the more experienced of the two bruisers shadowing her.

The Scotland Yard investigation into Khan’s expenses fraud might make his potential new role a little awkward though…

As one thrilling leadership race climaxes, another begins. That’s right, UKIP are gearing up to find a decent challenger to stop the second coming of Farage. However if the race so far is anything to go by, the plane crash survivor will be back in control of the party. Sadly it seems climate change pioneer Lord Monkton has decided not stand – something that would have infuriated the left.

Economist Tim Congdon, an unsuccessful UKIP PPC has allegedly been pressuring Farage’s supporters to “let someone else have a go”, but he might have to up his game some what if his retro nineties website is anything to go by. The money is very much on Farage.

Weirdy-beardy LibDem MP and coalition critic Mike Hancock has never been far from controversy involving his sex life, and this weekend was no different. Hancock has done well in recent months to keep certain stories about him out of the media.  Carmen the busty señorita he wined, dined and even gave a personal tour of the House of Commons never surfaced and Hancock’s re-election campaign in Portsmouth was blighted with much darker allegations that were injuncted. However this time there was nothing Hancock could do to stop being splashed across the Sunday papers again – mainly because he admitted the allegations put to him.

Hancock has not denied he pestered a mentally ill constituent who came to him for help. He dined with her in the House, bought her a teddy bear and other gifts and pestered her with “sexy” text messages. He claims her was just trying to “cheer her up” but the woman’s carers have reported him to the police, who are now investigating. Given his track record it’s unlikely Hancock’s long suffering wife will buy that line…

On the back of the scandal that he had employed a researcher who has links to the KGB, the knives are sharpening around Hancock. Guido spoke to a senior council source down in Porstmouth who is fuming about the lastest embarrassment Hancock has caused:

“The pressure is mounting on Hancock. There have been many rumours about him swirling around Portsmouth and Westminster for years, but this latest news is particularly worrying. It is not acceptable for him to remain in a Cabinet role on Portsmouth City Council – where he has influence over policy regarding care for the vulnerable – at a time when the police are investigating him for allegedly abusing a vulnerable constituent. Whether he should remain an MP is a matter for the Liberal Democrats, and his conscience.”

Looks like Hancock might be waiting a little longer for his long-coveted title Lord Hancock of Fratton…

This morning’s papers could not have been comfortable reading for the majority of the Labour Party who did not vote for Ed Miliband. Despite attempts to say “so what” to the fact that Unite and the other unions have the leader of their party by the balls, Red Ed is being defined by his opponents (and supporters) before the voting public have any idea who he really is. Not without good reason, imagine the outcry from Labour if the Tories biggest donor had been given the deciding say in who the party leader is, against the wishes of the membership and MPs. Try as Ed may to claim he is his own man, the results speak for themselves and how they were achieved is very telling.

Not only was there the £135,000 given to Ed’s campaign directly, but money was spent elsewhere pushing his face and name. Take this ballot paper envelope from the GMB for example:

Unite the Union broke not only the spirit but the letter of the leadership election laws by sending a mailshot endorsing Ed when they sent the ballot papers to their 950,000 members.  Unite even set up a website backing Red Ed which linked to the Electoral Reform Society’s online voting page. If David Miliband had a little less dignity he would have pretty solid grounds for an investigation.

The unions gave help-in-kind worth millions. There is no way the unions will not want a return for their investment and in the campaign Ed promised to support strikes and even show his face at the TUC’s coordinated action day. Guido is fairly confident this won’t happen and Ed will have to attempt to distance himself from his puppet-masters. Expect tame words calling for political solutions and the like…

Nassim Nicholas Taleb said…

“Obama did exactly the opposite of what should have been done… He surrounded himself with people who exacerbated the problem. You have a person who has cancer and instead of removing the cancer, you give him tranquilizers. When you give tranquilizers to a cancer patient, they feel better but the cancer gets worse… Total debt is higher than it was in 2008 and unemployment is worse.”