Winners & Losers

Besides Red Ed and Derek Simpson there are a few others who won big. On the blogosphere LeftFootForward did well, Mike Smithson bravely called it for Ed, enhancing his reputation for sagacity, YouGov rang the bell with polling granularity that was impressively predictive and punters did extraordinarily well. Yesterday morning punters’ favourites for first round elimination, to win overall, to win the membership, MPs, union sections and overall all came true. The predictive wisdom of crowds…

The losers were the Blairites. Mandelson should have stayed out of it, his intervention was counter-productive and irritated many. Mandy’s analysis was correct in that Ed was running against his own manifesto and was crowd pleasing the Guardianistas. Blairite pundits Rentoul and Aaronovitch are already mourning the electability of Labour. Labour friendly media did particularly badly, both the Mirror and the Guardian backed David Miliband to no avail. Clients of lobbyists Roland Rudd and Tony Bailey wasted their money, as did David Sainsbury, not that he’d notice.


The polling of Labour members shows that they thought David was the more effective leader, more likely to lead them to victory and would make a better PM, still they chose Ed. Tony himself of course dropped hints that David was really his heir and a disappointed Bad Al Campbell hit the nail on the Ed, saying he’ll make ‘the party feel OK about losing’. The Labour Party has chosen to lose the next general election and seems happy about it…



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Quote of the Day

Charles Clarke says Cameron is the most successful PM for over a century…

“Under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives gained 99 seats. They lost 211 under John Major, gained one under William Hague, quickly and wisely got rid of Ian Duncan-Smith, gained 32 under Michael Howard and have so far gained 133 under David Cameron who, to the great surprise of many (including senior Conservatives), has turned out to be the most electorally successful Tory leader since 1900.”

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