It Ain’t Over till the Electoral Reform Society Sings


Guido has basically got his betting book flat on the Labour leadership, after backing David originally, flipping around onto Ed last Friday and adding to his position substantially during the week. Guido took the book to basically neutral last night, after selling Ed at ridiculously high prices going into the result.

Why? Because it is just too close to call with confidence.

Unless the Electoral Reform Society has leaked – something Guido doubts – the Thursday night flip happened because punters put money on Ed, it snowballed taking him beyond evens and making him favourite. There was no new poll or information on Thursday, the price moved simply and only because there were more buyers than sellers.

At the time of writing the specialist political bookies Smarkets* have Ed with an 80% probability of winning, it should be nearer 50/50 based on the polling and closeness of the count. Guido is tempted, on a valuation basis, to sell Ed at that price…

*As far as Guido can see they are the only bookies still making prices.



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

GuidoFawkes Quote of the Day

Former Labour MP Dame Anne Begg:

“[Iain Duncan Smith] took to standing behind me during Prime Minister’s Questions. He stood at what’s called the Bar of the House and occasionally he would lean on my wheelchair. Our working relationship was slightly fraught anyway because I’d been critical of him a lot. I wanted to keep that criticism a professional criticism, not a criticism of him as a person so I never quite built up the courage to actually say: ‘Please don’t do that.'”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Cooper and Kendall in Bitter ‘Parent’ Row Cooper and Kendall in Bitter ‘Parent’ Row
WATCH: Topless Tory MP’s Steamy Shower Scene WATCH: Topless Tory MP’s Steamy Shower Scene
Austerity? What Austerity? Austerity? What Austerity?
KEN CRIES LISTENING TO HIS MOVING 7/7 SPEECH KEN CRIES LISTENING TO HIS MOVING 7/7 SPEECH
NOT SO SMART, METER NOT SO SMART, METER
MANDELSON: VOTE LIZ OR LOSE MANDELSON: VOTE LIZ OR LOSE

WARM WHITE WHINE: HORRORS OF LONDON’S GREEN LUVVIE CIRCUIT REVEALED WARM WHITE WHINE: HORRORS OF LONDON’S GREEN LUVVIE CIRCUIT REVEALED
Watch: Osborne v Corbyn Watch: Osborne v Corbyn
Jet-Setting Green Leader Jet-Setting Green Leader
Leftie Living Wage Hypocrisy Leftie Living Wage Hypocrisy
ITALIAN TECH COMPANY SOLD SPY SOFTWARE TO REPRESSIVE REGIMES ITALIAN TECH COMPANY SOLD SPY SOFTWARE TO REPRESSIVE REGIMES
Sweet FA: Outrage Bus Special Sweet FA: Outrage Bus Special
Sajid Javid’s Condom Gag Sajid Javid’s Condom Gag
Zac or Syed? Zac or Syed?
Angela Merkel, Your Boys Took One Helluva Beating Angela Merkel, Your Boys Took One Helluva Beating
Le Projet Européen est terminé Le Projet Européen est terminé
BBC News Channel Set to Go BBC News Channel Set to Go
Labour Candidate: Repatriating Tunisia Victims is ‘Imperialist Militarisation’ Labour Candidate: Repatriating Tunisia Victims is ‘Imperialist Militarisation’
Tory MP’s House Husband on Public Payroll Tory MP’s House Husband on Public Payroll