The campaigning is over, the counting has begun. For political punters like Guido there is a fascinating divergence between the punters and the pollsters, YouGov is calling it narrowly for Red Ed, the punters reckon it will be David Miliband. Why?
Guido has heard various theories:
We’ll find out in two days…
Paddy Power and William Hill are no longer taking bets fearing something might leak. The latest prices from Political Smarkets* are:
David |
Ed |
|
Next Labour Leader : |
64% |
34% |
MP/MEPs’ Favourite : |
89% |
35% |
Member’s Favourite : |
67% |
36% |
Union affiliate’s Favourite : |
11% |
93% |
In the humiliation stakes punters still reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. Guido thinks he might not come last and is a seller at 41%.
*These are implied probabilities, when they add up to over 100% it is called the “over-round”, the bigger the over-round the less efficient the market is, for an explanation see here.