September 23rd, 2010

Counting Begins

The campaigning is over, the counting has begun. For political punters like Guido there is a fascinating divergence between the punters and the pollsters, YouGov is calling it narrowly for Red Ed, the punters reckon it will be David Miliband. Why?

Guido has heard various theories:

  • YouGov got the weighting wrong for the union affiliates – being peddled by some Mili-D supporters.
  • YouGov / LeftFootForward have analysed the distribution of second preferences incorrectly – something Guido has questioned.
  • Someone is deliberately manipulating the betting markets on behalf of Mili-D to influence the MP/MEPs’ votes – they want to back a winner for careerist reasons – they can be influenced by the publicly available odds.

We’ll find out in two days…

Paddy Power and William Hill are no longer taking bets fearing something might leak. The latest prices from Political Smarkets* are:

David

Ed

Next Labour Leader :

64%

34%

MP/MEPs’ Favourite :

89%

35%

Member’s Favourite :

67%

36%

Union affiliate’s Favourite :

11%

93%

In the humiliation stakes punters still reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. Guido thinks he might not come last and is a seller at 41%.

*These are implied probabilities, when they add up to over 100% it is called the “over-round”, the bigger the over-round the less efficient the market is, for an explanation see here.


93 Comments

  1. 1
    Dick the Prick says:

    Abbott? 8 pints?

    Like

  2. 2
    astateofdenmark says:

    Think it will be closer than the odds suggest. Whoever wins will have squeaked home.

    Like

  3. 3
    Another Engineer says:

    They’d all sell us short, whatever the mathematics of the betting.

    Like

  4. 5
    Cato Street Conspirator says:

    One thing we can be sure of – whoever wins will make not the slightest difference to Labour’s prospects. Labour aren’t in the state they were in after 1979. If the coalition f*cks up then Labour will win the next election. If the coalition doesn’t f*ck up then Labour won’t win the next election.

    Like

    • 13

      We’ve got at least 5 years without the wankers, but having Dave ‘i’m an utter fucking sap’ Cameron at the helm still leaves me depressed.
      Edward or David – i couldn’t really give a shit.
      Pair of mongs, like Dave and Nick.

      Like

    • 20
      13eastie says:

      “whoever wins will make not the slightest difference to Labour’s prospects”

      The reason for this is that the Miliband family have (only temporarily) courted both sides of the party in tandem, assuming that one of the two approaches will succeed.

      Whichever of the two is installed as leader, once they are able to dispense with the inconvenience of having to appeal to the broader party membership, there will be no difference at all in approach:

      – speak in fake estuary English
      – oppose all spending cuts
      – offer no sensible deficit reduction plan
      – pray (multi-culturally) for a double-dip recession, high inflation, worsening unemployment, meltdown of public sector industrial relations, civil unrest
      – rely on trusty old Al Jabeeba to work hard to undermine the coalition with new best friends, Al Campbell, Charlie Kennedy and Vince Cable.

      Like

  5. 6
    Steve Miliband says:

    Where are they going to get enough competent women to fill half the shadow cabinet?
    Remember on election night there were a couple of ‘ladies’ elected in the NE – chances are one of them maybe a Shadow Minister of State

    Like

    • 35
      Anonymous says:

      the sticking point is in the word “competent”

      Like

    • 40
      Tessa Tickles says:

      And where are they going to find enough competent men to fill the other half?

      Like

      • 88
        Anonymous says:

        Tessa you have been conditioned to think my posting was sexist. I was refering to the competency of any candidate in the Labour Party. Idid not mention the term female yet you assumed so. Do keep up.

        Like

    • 84
      Cato Street Conspirator says:

      Steve Miliband – I always liked your ‘Take the money and run’, a song Blair obviously took to heart.

      Like

  6. 9
    Anonymous says:

    Freaks.

    Either one would be fantastic for ‘leader’ of the bucket of festering shite that is New Labour.

    Like

  7. 10
    Sir William Waad says:

    Let’s just wait for the result, shall we, without pretending that this is exciting?

    Like

    • 49
      Engineer says:

      It’s a good excuse for some to offer a clue as to why bookmakers’ lifestyles tend to be opulent. The rest of us will keep our wallets closed.

      Like

  8. 12
    Cowdenbeath Pool Attendant says:

    I can confirm that a Mr G Brown was asked to put his trunks back on during the care in the community Aquaerobics class.

    Like

  9. 14
    Lobby Dog says:

    I love watching the comrades play at democracy.

    Like

  10. 15

    ‘Westminster Creatureness’ all or any: 100%

    Like

  11. 16
    Selohesra says:

    surely ‘over-round’ is simply a description of one of the candidates – naming no names though as that would be ungallant

    Like

  12. 17
    Unsworth says:

    Yeah but Hunting began years ago

    Like

  13. 19
    Toilet Papers says:

    What a dreary prospect one of two useless twats heading a group of even more useless twats!! What is wrong with this country is that it is governed by amateurs who are guided by twats who lay their own or bought agendas forward rather than the best case for the country and its population. One only has to look at proposed changes to health, education, etc. to understand the lack of deep understanding of the systems and how implementation of these proposed changes will be difficult, costly and open the door for rampant privatisation and consequently higher costs as the shareholders require satisfaction of their investments.

    Like

  14. 22
    Selohesra says:

    So those nice civililised Americans are going to execute a grandmother with IQ of 78 – ie retarded. Glad to have them on our side in this crusade against those barbaric muslims.

    Like

  15. 23
    Bob Crow says:

    Dont worry folks I will personally be checking up on the ballot boxes and supervising the vote count. There is no need for alarm Uncle Bob will get it all squared away and nothing will prevent our glorious return to socialism.

    Like

    • 29
      Ed Miliband says:

      Communism, Comrade Bob, not socialism. Cameron’s doing socialism now, so we have to move further left. You of all people should know this.

      Like

  16. 24
    The last Balls says:

    Like

    • 33
      genghiz the kahn says:

      Hello Gloria, what are you wearing?

      Like

    • 37
      Socialists = Sociopaths says:

      Which one’s Balls and which one’s Billy ? They’re both fat bastuds and talk bollox for Britain.

      Like

    • 41
      Nuisance phone calls says:

      I notice that every call made was not answered. So they were either pretending to make calls just for the video or no one wants to speak to Balls.

      Like

    • 48
      Anonymous says:

      Who the fuck does Balls think he is addressing in this video. Apart from folks like us watching it to take the piss I cant imagine anyone else being remotely interested.
      Does he think he is Paris Hilton or some other z list celeb ??

      btw the “supporter” next to him stumbles over his lines of praise to Balls and almost says “He’s blown a hole in the Economy “. Freudian slip ?

      Like

  17. 28
    I hate New Labour says:

    This Labour leadership contest is a bit like two bald men fighting over a comb…

    Like

  18. 30
    The Bottle Fed Triplet says:

    So David Miliband goes on an official visit to an African country and gets taken to their Parliament where he gives a speech about how he is the best person to lead Labour and with him as Prime Minister, Britain would be a wonderful place. At the end of the speech all the MPs jump up smiling broadly and shout “Kabonga! Kabonga!”. Feeling pleased with himself he then gets taken to the University and gives the same speech at the end of which all the students jump up smiling broadly and shout “Kabonga!, Kabonga!”.
    Then David is taken to the national agricultural college where he is shown their latest acquisition, a prize bull. David’s guide invites him to go in to the bull’s enclosure but warns him to be careful. “Why?” says Miliband, “Is it dangerous?”
    “No”, says his guide, “ it is docile but there is a lot of kabonga on the floor.”

    Eye Thang Yow

    Like

  19. 31
    genghiz the kahn says:

    Is Kerry McCarthney at the count to tweet her friends to head off to paddy hill’s and william power?

    Like

  20. 32
    Unsworth says:

    Any word from La Bercow on how her candidate is doing? Suspect she’ll be delighted with the outcome after all that effort.

    Next, Guerrilla Retail in Oxford Street as she flogs off the remaining I Love Balls badges.

    See pest control have been round to Bercow Towers a couple of times. No success so far. They’re going to need thermo-nuclear intervention to get the poison dwarf out.

    Like

    • 55
      Engineer says:

      The cat-flap in the front door keeps jamming, so he can’t get in for his dinner of an evening. Pest controllers have been trying to free it off, with mixed success; hence the repeat visits.

      Like

  21. 36
    the beast of clerkenwell says:

    David will be best for the Anglo American relationship
    He keeps buying his children from America
    THe sterile banana waving impotent freak!

    Like

  22. 38
    Ghettobaby says:

    Ed Milliband looks a lot like Carol McGiffin — anyone else see the resemblance?

    Like

  23. 47
    Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss says:

    Like

    • 52
      It remains Guidos ultimate goal says:

      Carefull now such videos may contain the trigger words for folks like Guido to begin the Papist revolution.

      Like

    • 73
      Backwoodsman says:

      Well St Tone will obviously appear a pretty weak successor to Benny ( what with his military experience), but slot gob will make a pretty convincing Lucezia Borgia figure , with her background in poisonous, murderous feuds.

      Like

    • 82
      T.B£iar - the People's Messiah says:

      From prime minister to pope to Lucifer the Almighty.

      Like

  24. 49
    Surveillance Society says:

    I wonder if Nick and Dave will do anything about this.

    The UK has an extensive (ANPR) automatic number plate recognition CCTV network. Effectively, the police and Security services track all car movements around the country and are able to track any car in close to real time. Vehicle movements are stored for 5 years in the National ANPR Data Center to be analyzed for intelligence and to be used as evidence.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_number_plate_recognition

    Like

    • 56
      Its probably illegal says:

      Hidden away in company creation this was researched and developed on behalf of the insurance companies. They supply the cops with data and in return they get access to the PNC.,DVLA

      Like

      • 78
        Surveillance Society says:

        From that real time data the police would know of every speeding car in the country, yet they do not prosecute. I am glad they do not but it does make a mockery of their arguments for so called “safety” cameras.

        I agree this data collection is probably illegal. There was a chap on PM earlier this week who was talking about how easy it was to get info from the different data bases (DVLA, PNC, Bank Accounts, Health records etc) just a matter of bribing an employee who has access and it goes on all the time.

        Like

    • 74
      Jackie Buttplug says:

      If you’ve nothing to hide, you’ve nothing to fear.

      Like

      • 79
        Socialists = Sociopaths says:

        Love that Police State platitude !!

        Wouldn’t it be better to incant back, If you’ve got nothing to suspect, you’ve got nothing to surveil ?

        Like

  25. 58
    Mr I Grumble, Tax Slave of Busted Blighty, hoping for Coalition Boys & Gels to Fix it for Us UK says:

    Well, that’s my 37 ‘votes’ cast. I printed up a load of ‘Leadership Voting Slips’ a few days ago.

    So, start the destruction of the Liarbor Party…. all is in hand. My liege Lords of the Liarbor Party have commanded it so… (all is alleged of course…. I no Liarbor Party was harmed in the construction of this piece of ‘Blah’. ..honest!!

    Like

  26. 65
    Potkettle says:

    I do hope that someone independant is doing the counting
    Lets face it the Labour lot have proved that they aren’t very good at sums.

    I predict that Balls will win by borrowing his votes from the next ten leadership elections to count in this one

    Like

  27. 72

    At least labour MPs will have a clear conscience. They can all say, hand on heart, that they voted for Miliband.

    Like

  28. 92
    Non Runner says:

    Awww. Poor Guido, after all the campaigning you have done, it is likely furry Balls is going to come in last. I can’t imagine anyone wanting to back this three legged donkey.

    Like


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