Counting Begins

The campaigning is over, the counting has begun. For political punters like Guido there is a fascinating divergence between the punters and the pollsters, YouGov is calling it narrowly for Red Ed, the punters reckon it will be David Miliband. Why?

Guido has heard various theories:

  • YouGov got the weighting wrong for the union affiliates – being peddled by some Mili-D supporters.
  • YouGov / LeftFootForward have analysed the distribution of second preferences incorrectly – something Guido has questioned.
  • Someone is deliberately manipulating the betting markets on behalf of Mili-D to influence the MP/MEPs’ votes – they want to back a winner for careerist reasons – they can be influenced by the publicly available odds.

We’ll find out in two days…

Paddy Power and William Hill are no longer taking bets fearing something might leak. The latest prices from Political Smarkets* are:

David

Ed

Next Labour Leader :

64%

34%

MP/MEPs’ Favourite :

89%

35%

Member’s Favourite :

67%

36%

Union affiliate’s Favourite :

11%

93%

In the humiliation stakes punters still reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. Guido thinks he might not come last and is a seller at 41%.

*These are implied probabilities, when they add up to over 100% it is called the “over-round”, the bigger the over-round the less efficient the market is, for an explanation see here.



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

GuidoFawkes Quote of the Day

Adam Boulton says David Cameron campaigned as a neo-Thatcherite…

“The manifesto programme, with its sell-off of social housing, clampdown on public sector strikes, EU in/out referendum and benefit cuts, represents a much more traditional, neo-Thatcherite conservatism than that offered by Cameron Mk 1…”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Burnham’s Paul Smith Suits Burnham’s Paul Smith Suits
FLASHBACK: You Are Subsidising Andy Burnham’s Property Portfolio FLASHBACK: You Are Subsidising Andy Burnham’s Property Portfolio
Arise, Sir Eric! Arise, Sir Eric!
ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH CONTINUED ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH CONTINUED
Stella Grills Dimbleby on Sexuality Stella Grills Dimbleby on Sexuality
New Select Committee Chair Allocation in Full New Select Committee Chair Allocation in Full

Miliband: Don’t Move to the Centre Miliband: Don’t Move to the Centre
Insta-Bunga! Insta-Bunga!
GREEN PAEDO RING RUMBLED GREEN PAEDO RING RUMBLED
BIONIC MAN CONTROLS TWO ROBOTIC ARMS WITH HIS MIND BIONIC MAN CONTROLS TWO ROBOTIC ARMS WITH HIS MIND
TECH NOSTALGIA: LYCOS SELLS ITS PATENTS TECH NOSTALGIA: LYCOS SELLS ITS PATENTS
BIN LADEN PLANNED JIHAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE BIN LADEN PLANNED JIHAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE
CAMERON’S UBER PALS SQUARE UP AGAINST BORIS CAMERON’S UBER PALS SQUARE UP AGAINST BORIS
Andy Burnham: “I Would Follow David Moyes Textbook” in Office Andy Burnham: “I Would Follow David Moyes Textbook” in Office
BBC CLIMATE FORECAST THREE YEARS OUT OF DATE BBC CLIMATE FORECAST THREE YEARS OUT OF DATE
UKIP Latest: Suzanne Speaks UKIP Latest: Suzanne Speaks
24 Hour Drinking: “The Best Thing the Labour Party Ever Did” 24 Hour Drinking: “The Best Thing the Labour Party Ever Did”
Fight! UKIP’s Steven Woolfe v Jean-Marine Le Pen Fight! UKIP’s Steven Woolfe v Jean-Marine Le Pen
Hilton’s Hipsters & High Tories Hilton’s Hipsters & High Tories