Counting Begins

The campaigning is over, the counting has begun. For political punters like Guido there is a fascinating divergence between the punters and the pollsters, YouGov is calling it narrowly for Red Ed, the punters reckon it will be David Miliband. Why?

Guido has heard various theories:

  • YouGov got the weighting wrong for the union affiliates – being peddled by some Mili-D supporters.
  • YouGov / LeftFootForward have analysed the distribution of second preferences incorrectly – something Guido has questioned.
  • Someone is deliberately manipulating the betting markets on behalf of Mili-D to influence the MP/MEPs’ votes – they want to back a winner for careerist reasons – they can be influenced by the publicly available odds.

We’ll find out in two days…

Paddy Power and William Hill are no longer taking bets fearing something might leak. The latest prices from Political Smarkets* are:

David

Ed

Next Labour Leader :

64%

34%

MP/MEPs’ Favourite :

89%

35%

Member’s Favourite :

67%

36%

Union affiliate’s Favourite :

11%

93%

In the humiliation stakes punters still reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. Guido thinks he might not come last and is a seller at 41%.

*These are implied probabilities, when they add up to over 100% it is called the “over-round”, the bigger the over-round the less efficient the market is, for an explanation see here.




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Tory MP Stewart Jackson on Bob Geldof:

“Now loudmouth multimillionaire soapdodger Bob Geldof is supporting the LibDem campaign in Richmond Park. Haven’t the voters suffered enough?”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Public Heath England Gets Booze Sums Wrong Public Heath England Gets Booze Sums Wrong
Civil Servants Forced to Admit We’re Leaving EU Civil Servants Forced to Admit We’re Leaving EU
Sarah Olney Walks Out of Interview Sarah Olney Walks Out of Interview
DfID Slams Baroness Scotland DfID Slams Baroness Scotland
Ken Aide Says Staff Celebrated 9/11 Ken Aide Says Staff Celebrated 9/11
Highest Ever Immigration Highest Ever Immigration
Mortgage Approvals at 7-Month High Mortgage Approvals at 7-Month High
Whitehall’s Brexit Blooper Whitehall’s Brexit Blooper
Amy Lame Ends Naughty Property Deal Amy Lame Ends Naughty Property Deal
WATCH: Bob Geldof Embarrasses Libdems WATCH: Bob Geldof Embarrasses Libdems
Was Guardian Spoofed by Alt Right Hoax? Was Guardian Spoofed by Alt Right Hoax?
Khan Breaks Fourth Promise Khan Breaks Fourth Promise
Bone Tables Article 50 Bill Bone Tables Article 50 Bill
Corbyn’s Commons Cock-Up Corbyn’s Commons Cock-Up
WATCH: Tom Watson Singing Israeli Celebration WATCH: Tom Watson Singing Israeli Celebration
Hugo Speaks Out Hugo Speaks Out
Baroness Scotland’s Anti Corruption Lecture Baroness Scotland’s Anti Corruption Lecture
BBC Interupts Snooker to Remember Castro BBC Interupts Snooker to Remember Castro
Leadsom Brexit Plans 25 Years Ahead Leadsom Brexit Plans 25 Years Ahead
Suzanne Evans’ Discrete Tube Chat Suzanne Evans’ Discrete Tube Chat