Counting Begins

The campaigning is over, the counting has begun. For political punters like Guido there is a fascinating divergence between the punters and the pollsters, YouGov is calling it narrowly for Red Ed, the punters reckon it will be David Miliband. Why?

Guido has heard various theories:

  • YouGov got the weighting wrong for the union affiliates – being peddled by some Mili-D supporters.
  • YouGov / LeftFootForward have analysed the distribution of second preferences incorrectly – something Guido has questioned.
  • Someone is deliberately manipulating the betting markets on behalf of Mili-D to influence the MP/MEPs’ votes – they want to back a winner for careerist reasons – they can be influenced by the publicly available odds.

We’ll find out in two days…

Paddy Power and William Hill are no longer taking bets fearing something might leak. The latest prices from Political Smarkets* are:

David

Ed

Next Labour Leader :

64%

34%

MP/MEPs’ Favourite :

89%

35%

Member’s Favourite :

67%

36%

Union affiliate’s Favourite :

11%

93%

In the humiliation stakes punters still reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. Guido thinks he might not come last and is a seller at 41%.

*These are implied probabilities, when they add up to over 100% it is called the “over-round”, the bigger the over-round the less efficient the market is, for an explanation see here.



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

GuidoFawkes Quote of the Day

Tim Shipman to¬†Adam Boulton on the TV debates…

“If Cameron gets in a car to go to the debate, Lynton Crosby will stage a car crash.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Gordon’s Seat Could Go to SNP Gordon’s Seat Could Go to SNP
NHS ADMIT MEDICAL RECORDS ARE NOT SAFE NHS ADMIT MEDICAL RECORDS ARE NOT SAFE
Today’s PMQs SKETCH: A New Low Today’s PMQs SKETCH: A New Low
Yet Another Mainstream Media UKIP Smear Yet Another Mainstream Media UKIP Smear
HANDS ON WITH THE NEW SINCLAIR ZX SPECTRUM HANDS ON WITH THE NEW SINCLAIR ZX SPECTRUM
Typical Trade Union Drivers Typical Trade Union Drivers

Labour MP in Misuse of Taxpayer Cash Row Labour MP in Misuse of Taxpayer Cash Row
BOFFINS: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED ISIS BOFFINS: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED ISIS
Mystery of Massive Miliband Mystery of Massive Miliband
Cameron With a Gun to His Head Cameron With a Gun to His Head
Save the Children Sorry For Blair Award Save the Children Sorry For Blair Award
Another NHS Hospital Shamed Another NHS Hospital Shamed
Widespread and Habitual Hacking at the Mirror Widespread and Habitual Hacking at the Mirror
Will Straw Silent on Sleaze Will Straw Silent on Sleaze
When Dave Met Walliams When Dave Met Walliams
Home Office: Nerdy Kids are Dangerous Home Office: Nerdy Kids are Dangerous
Jim Murphy Is Laughing At You Jim Murphy Is Laughing At You
Awesome Star Wars Tie Fighter Drone Awesome Star Wars Tie Fighter Drone
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,816 other followers