The ONS today reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 1.1% in the second quarter of 2010, compared with an increase of 0.3% in the previous quarter. That is much higher than expected, almost double what consensus economists were forecasting. Good news for the economy but terrible news for the agreed Balls-Byrne line that public sector cuts “risk a double dip recession”. If this number is not rogue it blows IMF and OBR predictions out of the water on the upside. It also blows Labour’s political strategy…

This will cause anguish in Labour circles (whatever they say publicly) because if the Coalition gets the economy to bounce and grow strongly by 2014, Labour faces becoming the third party. Labour needs bad news to thrive electorally…