May 25th, 2010

Markets Like the Change Coalition

Before the election George Osborne and many Tory leaning pundits were claiming that a coalition government would wreak havoc in financial markets.  Guido argued the opposite – that a “Change Coalition” would see gilts rocket upwards – only a government involving the Labour Party would wreak more financial havoc.

The gilt market has seen yields drop a full 50 basis points, in plain english that is the gilt market taking ½% off the ten year interest rate against which many mortgages are set.

This immediate £6 billion reduction in unfunded over-spending is seen in the City as confimation that the LibDems are fully signed up to the savage cuts to come next year.  Britain has now moved out of the P I I G S bracket of nations (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) in danger of sovereign default.* The chart above shows it all clearly, during the days when the City feared a Lib-Lab government the markets declined and once the Lib-Con government was in the bag they rallied.


138 Comments

  1. 1
    Picasso says:

    Shouldn’t the colour to the right be a dirty green, i.e. not blue period, but blue and orange mixed together period

    Like

    • 5
      sockpuppet #4 says:

      If you add blue to orange you get a nice purple-magenta colour.

      Like

      • 13
        Loony Lefty Libcons says:

        “we are modern progressive Conservatives” – Conservative Cabinet Minister quoted this morning

        Like

        • 46
          Smig says:

          “progressive”. Hmmm progressing towards what exactly?

          Oh, that’ll be further integration with EUSSR.

          Nothing to see here citizens. Your government has decided that its best for Westminster the country that we progress in our aims for a United Soviet Republic of Europe.

          And please can we have some more money. Thanks.

          Like

          • Don’t forget their other fudge phrases:
            “New Government – New Politics”
            “Modern”
            “Innovative”
            “Ground-breaking”
            “Change”

            Are there no normal people left in Westminster who have ears and eyes to understand voters’ immediate concerns?

            Polls showed that the top three concerns were:
            Debt
            Immigration
            EU

            The Queen’s speech ignores the last two and applies a pathetic band-aid to the first.

            Even after their miniscule cuts, we will still INCREASE our debt by over 150billion every year.

            Like

      • 94

        PEACE CAMP ATTACKED ON PARLIAMENT GREEN – FASCIST CLAMPDOWN BEGINS – GET TO WESTMINSTER NOW – FIGHT BACK

        Like

        • 104
          Life's too short says:

          Get to Westminster now – the gallant boys in blue* need the public’s assistance, support and good wishes in the distasteful task of personhandling the soap-dodging workshy dregs of society back to their parents homes.

          * formerly the ZaNuLab Stasi Bootboys, now under new management.

          Like

        • 108

          Piss on them.

          Haw’s OK – he’s a man of principle (if a bit mad), but the bunch of johnny-come-lately communists and hippies need to go.

          Should have sent in the TSG against them.

          Like

        • 122
          stilyagi_air_corps says:

          About time – these antidemocratic fascists protesting our legally-voted Government need sorting out! Your side lost, Mr Bragg. Get over it.

          Like

    • 8
      Smig says:

      Why was the graph rising while Liebour will still in charge?

      26th – 6th shows an overal upwards trend.

      Like

  2. 2
    Peter Grimes says:

    Good news for borrowers, but what about us savers?

    Like

    • 6
      Southern Softy says:

      You mean to say that you have money left to save after Liebour has squeezed almost every groat from us, or are you just starting from scratch again?

      Like

      • 25
        Labour Governments ALWAYS end in failure and national debt says:

        Rather depends if you fell for the Labour hype over the last 13 years…borrowed to the hilt on the mortgage or indulged in get rich quick “Buy to Let Schemes”against perceived property values increasing and maxed out the credit cards to fund a celebrity style lifestyle that you really couldn’t afford on the the expectations that the good times would last forever and blow having to pay it back….

        Like

    • 35
      Allan@Aberdeen says:

      Does this mean that the country will be able to borrow more money? Just great if we can – it’s like debt is wealth.

      Like

    • 82
      Anonymous says:

      Same old tat same old teat

      Like

  3. 3
    sockpuppet #4 says:

    The pound has gone down against the euro (not checked against the dollar, so that might just be the euro going up).

    What about spain?

    Like

  4. 4
    filipinomonkey says:

    Oh dear Guido, this won’t please the trolls…

    Like

  5. 7
    Mr Ned says:

    O/T “Clegg’s “Freedom Bill”, how refreshing to hear the word “freedom” used by a mainstream politician. Something worth fighting for…”

    When asked on breakfast news this morning about which parts of the new coalition’s queen’s speech she would oppose, labour’s Caroline Flint, stated that she would attack the “so-called freedom bill”.

    This shows labour have learned NOTHING about how their rabidly anti-British attacks on our long held and cherished freedoms are hated by freedom loving Brits.

    Labour had done more to radically alter our way of life and remove our freedom than Al Qaeda could ever do.

    Like

    • 21
      Only a complete twat would fall for such moronic Public Relations sub-Bush jingoistic bullshit says:

      I bought a Freedom Sausage from a Butcher.

      It is the very pinnacle of British Democracy and everything we fought two World Wars for. So we must support it and demonise anyone who does not buy this patriotic offal tube.

      Or..

      It’s simply a word used by the unscrupulous to fool and confuse the very, very stupid.

      Like

    • 23
      Winston Smith says:

      “Freedom Bill”. I hope so. But beware Owellian machinations…

      Like

    • 27
      Alky Da says:

      Flint is a Fabian with a degree in American Literature and History combined with Film Studies from the University of East Anglia. Clearly an intellectual power-house within the Labour Party.

      Like

      • 31
        Loony Lefty Libcons says:

        We are the progressives now.

        Like

      • 34
        Alan says:

        She is also a tap dancing pal of lovely dwarf Hazel Blears, who used to work together under the name “The Division Belles”, Tea For Two and a rictus grin.

        Like

        • 80

          Wouldn’t it be more Appalachian clog dancing with those two?

          Duelling banjos and inbred drooling all round…

          Like

        • 119
          Anonymous says:

          Flint does rather seem the type who would get hot over the thought of the ginger minger arriving toute de suite hot-foot and sweaty clad only in biking leathers with nothing underneath for some tutti frutti action (or even some tutte frutte action).

          Like

      • 98
        Anonymous says:

        Plus she’s a Belladonna lookee likee ! Dirty bitch!

        Like

    • 37
      Madme Defarge says:

      I’m surprised anyone is still asking the rag bag leftovers of the depraved Liebour administration for their views on anything and in particular Caroline “window dressing” Flint.
      Madme Defarge is still yelling at the telly (I thought my rage would have subsided a tad post election) when I hear the jerks saying we didn’t pay enough attention to immigration or the war in Iraq was wrong.
      So why wasn’t anyone saying this at the time. As for Ms Flint opposing the Freedom bill she needs to go and boil her head. Time for the freedoms to be restored.

      Like

      • 63
        Mike Hunt says:

        I’m afraid I annoyed Mrs Hunt no end this morning by shouting at the STUPID bitch who can’t understand the difference between the economy and government spending. Then she starts spouting about how people want to be spied on by CCTV and how having innocent people on a DNA database catches millions (ok, not millions but quite a lot) of rapists.

        There was me foolish enough to think that kicking them out of power would make them disappear for good. Oh yes, I forgot, I was watching the BBC.

        Like

    • 59
      Can't remember my moniker says:

      “Labour had done more to radically alter our way of life and remove our freedom than Al Qaeda could ever do.”

      So right, Mr Ned. The reason I do not live in the UK any more. I have just enjoyed a short visit but I was relieved to get away again. But there was a parting shot. As I was about to drive on the ferry, I was instructed to drive into a secure area where they used mirrors mounted on wheels to look under my car, I said, “Shouldn’t you be doing this to the cars coming in, not leaving?”

      The last time this happened to me in a car was when I drove through Checkpoint Charlie from East Berlin to West before the fall of the Iron Curtain. In God’s name, what have we come to?

      Like

      • 70
        AC1 says:

        A totally disarmed people can never over-throw the rent seeking class.

        Like

        • 107
          Can't remember my moniker says:

          Yes AC1. Can you imagine that a multiple identity benefit claimer could now be classified as a rentier class functionless investor?

          Like

      • 77
        Ken Lorp says:

        They’re trying to prevent people leaving the socialist workers paradise!

        Like

      • 84

        They were checking for illegal emigrants.

        Like

      • 120
        Anonymous says:

        I’ve encountered buffoonery myself driving onto the ferry at Dover – not only having to present my British passport to get out of the country, but even being pulled over to an inspection shed to be asked whether I ever take any illegal immigrants out as well.

        Like

    • 131
      Up sh1t creek says:

      Like

  6. 9
    Hellboy88 says:

    Blimey thought I’d come to Conservative Home website by mistake. Are you lurking there Tim? Have to tied up Guido and stuck an apple in his gob?

    Like

    • 30
      Lee says:

      Don’t be silly. There is real debate on Conservativehome amongst Conservatives about how wise this Liberal Love in is. You won’t get that here.

      Like

  7. 10
    Laocowboy2 says:

    The cuts so far announced are just the beginning of what is necessary – and what is necessary is more than just cuts. There also has to be a fundamental change in attitudes. The days of “the government should provide x, y or z” have to go – along with the mindset that fails to understand that governments have no money of their own – only the ability to take that of others. What will happen immediately ahead will be (once again) cuts in capital expenditure (which are oddly enough in the fairy tale world of government accounts treated identically with current expenditure) together with some efforts to rein back current expenditures. Not radical enough. There should be (a) significant cuts in unfunded pension “obligations” for civil servants, (b) new (means tested if necessary) charges for seeing doctors etc plus whatever further new charges and cuts are required to get current expenditure into line with current revenues. When (and hopefully not if) revenues recover, these should go first to debt reduction and then to some of the most needed deferred capital expenditure.

    Like

    • 18
      Sir William Waad says:

      (1) Reduce civil service numbers to 1997 levels. The country is about the same size now as in 1997 and modern IT should have created some effciencies. Don’t just abolish jobs, abolish unnecessary functions.

      (2) Reduce NHS admin and management numbers to the same percentage of NHS medical staff that they were at in 1997. This is still very generous because it doesn’t allow for any economies of scale or from IT systems.

      (3) Require all quangos to apply for re-election every five years.

      Like

      • 19
        Montgomery Cheddar says:

        You’re obviously not up to speed on the previous government’s assorted ICT procurement disasters.

        Like

        • 81
          Smig says:

          ICT in hospitals is always backed up with pen and paper. The info is then duplicated into an ICT system when the Staff Nurses and Deputy Ward Managers get their Paperwork Day.

          Paper and pen works, and a pencil costs 12p whereas it costs more than that in electrickery to run a computer for a shift. Might as well give people a chalk and slate when they’re working the wards.

          Like

      • 24
        Laocowboy2 says:

        Why 1997? Too many then – why not 1997 less 10% as a target.

        Like

      • 38
        purpleline says:

        Just pass a law that all quango’s are abolished and will be replaced by new quango with a salary structure 50% of all previous quango’s.

        Then we will see how Sir Notverygoodatanything really & Dame pippa moreteavicar, wish to remain in post.

        Like

        • 51
          CHARITY BEGINS AT HOME says:

          Wheres my cut’s ?
          I voted tory for major cuts these are only 10% of what i was expecting !
          loose change compaired to what is needed
          stop paying overseas aid to countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes you dick’s

          Like

          • AC1 says:

            Just stop at 4 words

            stop paying overseas aid

            If British Citizens want to send money to foreign charities then OK, but don’t extort it for your one-word-government loving mates.

            Like

          • Smig says:

            DFID budget was £9.1 Billion for 09/10.

            £9.1Billion down, only £151Billion of Deficit to go.

            Like

          • Number 10's cat says:

            £9.1 billion of compassion we cannot afford

            Like

          • I'll have some of that says:

            Can’t do that. Bono and Bob say so.

            Like

        • 66
          call me Cleggeron says:

          Dave’s going to replace all those quangos with a blizzard of committees.
          He needs them all to try and fudge most of his policies since he and Clegg can’t agree on so many of them.

          Like

    • 50
      albacore says:

      Imagine you’re an old-fashioned manager of one of the old-fashioned High Street banks back in the days before they all went blind, deaf and daft.
      Some plonker that’s been hogging your time for years comes in with the same, old, next-year, maybe, sometime, never cash-flow forecast. His balance sheets and profit and loss accounts yell out that he’s been overtrading since the year dot; and the auditors’ reservations would fill a dozen Hotel Californias.
      What do you do?

      Like

  8. 11
    Helpful says:

    DC has also well and truly stitched up the Libdems. If another election is called in the next 18 months or so they are really going to have nowhere to go with their arguments. No prospect of a Labour Government for five years with or without another election and no prospect of the Lib Dems splitting the anti Labour vote; no point in voting a paler shade of blue. They are going to get really squeezed in five years time at a General Election unless they go for Labour’s vote, big time.

    Like

    • 17
      Laocowboy2 says:

      Politically very possible – but perhaps shortsighted if that is the attitude that we (as in Tories) take. The prime objective should be to avoid seeing another Labour government this side of 2020. Achieving this would be worth helping the Lib Dems a bit in terms of (minor but flashy) concessions on policies, some “not trying too hard” in some SW seats etc. The longer term aim should be to make them feel that if they are to ever govern in coaltion again, to do so with gentlemen is prefferrable.

      Like

      • 33
        filipinomonkey says:

        Liked it apart from the words “this side of 2020″, a simple full stop would have done.

        Until they can demonstrate, though heaven only knows how, that they are fit to be in charge of anything more complex than the whelk stall I’d rather they weren’t allowed another go for my childrens sake.

        Like

        • 115
          Laocowboy2 says:

          I was being selfish – at my age 2020 will probably see me out!

          Like

        • 126
          Middle England says:

          Revamping the present rigged electoral system, which hugely favours Labour, will make it very difficult for Labour to get in again. Good.

          Like

    • 26
      Nick Clegg is your master now says:

      The Liberals have more power than they could have ever possibly dreamed with half of them now in Government jobs as well as some of their biggest their Manifesto pledges implemented.
      The only people call me Dave has fucked is his own Party and right wing right up the arse as they fall into line like sheep to carry out his centre left touchy feely greeny Libservatism.

      Like

      • 102
        Helpful says:

        Wasn’t commenting on policy but the way the coalition has been set up and the consequences for any subsequent Libdem GE campaign. Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and David Laws can’t really be the front men for the coalition, on TV all the time telling us how wonderful the coalition is and then subequently in a campaign, say, “ah but the Conservatives are really nasty types, it just took us five years to work it out!”. If they don’t start to savage the Labour party and really go for the Labour vote now, they will have nothing to say in five years time. I can’t really see how they could present an argument that would result in them picking up more Conservative marginals.

        Like

    • 54
      theprofromdover says:

      The Tory plan is to set up LibDems as alternative to New Labour. Just watch for nice initiatives in Lab/LD marginal seats in the coming few years, where Clegg can take the credit.

      Like

    • 101
      bergen says:

      As far as I’m concerned,I’m an anti-socialist not a Tory and this administration suits me.We are going to need an anti-socialist government for a generation to rebuild the economy that Brown has trashed and to reclaim our ancient rights and liberties.It took 13years to get into this state and it is likely to take at least that to get us out again.

      Like

      • 128
        Can I have my country back now, please? says:

        We also have to do something about 13 years of immigr@nts. The elephant in the room.

        Like

  9. 20
    Liar Byrne says:

    There’s no money left – good luck !!!

    Like

    • 40
      Anonymous Scottish Labour Supporter from Fife says:

      Doon ye come that we me Liam… I ken yoor game…ye canna poot the blame on me I saved the World an’ that disnae come cheap ye ken…an’ no forget that we ‘ad t spend a few wee baubies in oor ‘eartlands to ensure they voted forrus.. t’were no my fault that most o’them were bigots an’ voted for young Nicky Clegg or posh Davey Cameron instead o’me.

      Like

  10. 22
    purpleline says:

    Guido in all honesty we are probably the best of a bad European bunch and the buying is coming from risk aversion trades with a small allocation into Gilts as investors shy away from Euro countries by selling bonds to the ECB and investing in German bunds, US Treasuries & move into Swiss. SNB was standout seller of CHF lately due to desire to protect its exporters.

    I do feel sorry Ireland and would advise them to break with the Euro devalue and link back to sterling at parity. That would give them a tremendous boost and generate their export and inward flow of funds from the UK their biggest trading partner.

    Ireland have paid the price for behaving impeccably since the problem started and have worn the hair shirt well, unfortunately the Greeks and Portugeezers and Spaniards have not.

    Germany, Benelux, Denmark Norway, Sweden and Finland should lock in a northern ccy bloc linked to sterling with the UK re-establishing the sterling area to boost free trade & take advantage of the commonwealth >India< trading opportunities allowing southern euro and France to devalue and get back on track.

    This would boost international growth, take the chattels off the UK and help African states who are blocked from EU markets. Via the commonwealth they would and should have access to the Northern European markets.

    Like

    • 135
      Foxy Fuchsochs says:

      Aside from not understanding the reference to ‘chattels’, agreed. Would be worth more than any amount of ringfenced ‘aid’ we send.

      Like

  11. 28
    alister says:

    Before the election Osbourne was trying to get as many votes as possible and hence seats – they came close, but didn’t make it.

    Like

    • 49
      Tulkinghorn says:

      A remarkable analysis of the election, thanks. That’s the kind of education I come here for.

      Like

  12. 29
    The Court of Public Opinion says:

    PIIGS? I thought that was a ref to vulgar ex “royals” getting caught whoring for Hoonwork.

    Like

  13. 32
    The Market is always right says:

    Particularly when it’s being bailed out by the Taxpayer.

    Like

  14. 36
    Brian Haw says:

    Bastards….everyone of them

    Like

  15. 41
    Danger says:

    Guido, you’re talking out of your arse and you know it. The same pattern is visible in Treasuries and Bunds, and it’s driven by global events, not our parochial election. Gilts are still seen as a safe haven by global investors, which is heartening, but that was clear before the election as Gilt yields fell on the same days as Treasuries and Bunds as PIIGS yields were rising.

    Sterling has been falling since election day. The speculative net short position in Sterling is at a major high. Why? Because investors actually believed Osborne’s posturing about surprises left by the Labour government. Markets don’t get politics.

    You are right in a way, though. If Sterling is falling and Gilt yields are falling, it suggests that the markets believe the coalition will be effective in cutting the budget deficit, reducing economic growth in the short term and requiring lower interest rates (hence weaker Sterling) in order to pay down debt (hence falling Gilt yields).

    Like

    • 83
      No vote of confidence....it's fear says:

      danger yr right.

      The Gilt rally has little or nothing to do with Guido’s beloved coalition, there is a full blown panic developing in the mkts, thanks to the EU’s standard inability to do anything other than cause mayhem and ruination, in anything it touches.

      Funds that are running from the Stock mkt have to go somewhere and Gilts are the only alternative to many managers……hence the rally. As Danger says, US treasuries and Bunds are all rallying as well, for the same reason…..PIIG panic.

      The real story is how long can the EU hold onto the Euro, as it’s problems are now wrecking the entire global financial system…..not whether the mkts love Pinky and Perky…….they don’t.

      Like

  16. 43
    testing the water says:

    the Libs will see how popular these tiny cuts are with the voters and their supporters and if they get any kind of backlash as they start to hit councils they will simply ditch the coalition just before the real ones are enacted
    they will then claim the real cuts are unnecessarily severe and that Cable and Clegg tried to reason with Osborne but he wouldn’t listen
    leaving the conservatives to pick up the mess and the blame in about 18 months to 2 years

    Like

  17. 53
    Civil Servant says:

    The graph was going up under Labour. Now, you’ll say “the markets factored in Labour’s loss at the election”. If it had been going down, you would have said “it’s going down because Labour are in charge”

    It’s good to see that Guido is on-side with the new program. The sycophancy, while distasteful, at least demonstrates that Guido is not anti-establishment, just pro-Tory. It’s therefore understandable you’d chose to avoid the dollar/pound graph which is so much more entertaining. Why is the pound going down?

    Like

  18. 60
    David Cameron says:

    Nick, I have had three cups of coffee this morning and I really, really need to have a slash, if I don’t go now I will piss my pants.
    Please can I take a piss, Nick?
    Would that be okay?

    Like

    • 71
      The Coalition View on this subject is(if that's ok with you Nick ?) says:

      Having called a quick “ad hoc” committee to analyse the situation and after reference to the Coaltion Agreement it seems that there could in fact be some room to agree to an arrangement whereby access to the Prime Ministerial Bog can be shared between both Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg. on the following basis subject to ratification by the relevant interested parties to the agreement…Mon.Wed,Fri..Mr Cameron and Tues,Thursday,Saturday for Mr Clegg with both sharing on Sundays

      Like

  19. 62
    purpleline says:

    Create 200bn and get growth of hey revised upwards growth of 0.3% well that was money well created then erghhhhhhhh.

    Policy of ensuring inflation to wipe out external debt working well

    Like

  20. 64
    Question Time says:

    Serious question, what the fuck do the lot of you do to be able to post 24/7, do you all work in the fcking BBC or whitehall or Salford City Council, what type of fucking jobs have you got.

    And if the Markets are doing so fucking well then please explain anybody why the FTSE 100 is down 2% and the £/$ down 1% in early morning trading??????

    Like

  21. 65
    Cassandrina says:

    Bit one dimensional only mentioning gilts.
    What about the stock market going below 5000 – now on 5075?
    What about the £ languishing and losing out to the $ and Euro over the past few weeks?
    The jury is still out on UK investment, and while you applauded Cameron’s attack on the 1922 committee, most of us saw this as poor judgement – luckily so did he as he has u-turned on this.
    He should be addressing the bbc radio 4 who still constantly fawn up to such ridiculous and incompetent people as Balls, Bryne, Darling, and Straw on the current state of the economy and what the “coalition government” are doing.
    You could not make it up.

    Like

  22. 67
    Trinny says:

    Shame the FTSE’s tanking

    Like

    • 72
      The euro is dead - Long Live The Pound says:

      You sound like a communist trinny.
      It was a combination of lazy sponging communists like you wasting the hard earned cash of the workers and the reckless lending of the bankers that got us in this shit in the first place love.
      The FTSE will rise again because the British countries it trades shares in are manned by hardworking, skilled British workers who have a never say die to business.
      Workshy communists like you give up at the first sign of trouble.

      Like

      • 95
        Liam Byrne says:

        what a prat. the only thing the brits make is trouble, either that or shit vans.

        Like

      • 129
        Trinny says:

        Communist? No just an ordinary capitalist investor. Given the FTSE is 80% driven by overseas earning I doubt that your redoubtable British workers have got much to do about it.

        BTW – you do appear to be a prat

        Like

    • 96
      Smig says:

      Up 500 points in 12 months.

      Stop panicking.

      Like

  23. 73
    Michael68000 says:

    The whole world economy might be in for severe downward spiral if Gordon gets the top job at the IMF!

    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/176657/Gordon-Brown-first-choice-for-top-job-at-IMF

    Like

    • 92
      Sir William Waad says:

      Gordon gives, as his reasons for wanting the job, ambition and anger. It sums the man up.

      Like

      • 105
        Michael68000 says:

        The combination of ambition and lack of talent is always a recipe for grief – If only he’d followed his father into the church he’d have been as happy as a pig in muck shouting about Hell fire and damnation, but no – some silly sod got him interested in politics!

        I’m not sure what the consequences will be if the IMF goes bust – maybe we’ll find out soon?

        Like

        • 110

          The IMF will not go bust – if it was in danger of that, then the slightly less fucked economies would print money to fund the IMF to bail out the really fucked economies.

          Add to that the recent US Congress vote aimed at restricting lending to the profligate, and the IMF is fairly insulated from disasters such as PIGS.

          Like

          • Michael68000 says:

            “The IMF will not go bust”

            I can’t help but feel that if Gordon was involved, he’d find SOME way of buggering it up!

            Like

    • 99
      purpleline says:

      We need to pull out of the IMF if that Hunt gets anywhere near it.
      Start a new fund the man is the cause of all this financial ruin.

      It did not start in America it started when some looney lefties got hold of Brown at university and turned the gay Hunt into a commie plant. Brown has done more harm to England than Hitler official!

      Brown his wife and children should be hanging outside number 10 as a warning to Cameron to get it right!!

      Like

      • 106
        bergen says:

        It does seem decidedly odd to advocate sending Brown to the IMF.Do we really want to see the rest of the world bankrupted?I can’t see that it could possibly be in our national interest.

        Like

    • 112
      Fife & Bum says:

      Tom Brown said that his 59-year-old pal believes he has “one big job left in him”.

      Would that big job be defecating Toenails and Further or his he going to destroy the world rather than the UK!

      Like

      • 121
        Michael68000 says:

        “one big job left in him”

        A good does of syrup of figs ought to see him right.

        Like

        • 125
          purpleline says:

          Maybe you did not understand him correctly, he said there was one more jobby in him. meaning he is crap

          Like

  24. 74
    Anonymous says:

    Nothing to do with investors taking risk off the table as the FTSE plummets from 5800, eh?

    Like

  25. 75
    Martin Day says:

    Labour was working; GDP figures revised from first qtr of 2010 show growth of 0.3%.

    Like

    • 79
      The euro is dead - Long Live The Pound says:

      That acid you are taking is definitely working.

      Like

      • 88
        Socialists in denial says:

        What concerns me comrades is the con/dems are going to alter the f/king voting areas which is a bad thing .I mean,before we could get 30% and get 300 seats.The Tories got 30% and got 200 seats.Its all F/king wrong brothers.

        Like

    • 85
      Your therapist says:

      Martin, it is one thing to be a confirmed twat – but to go out every day and practice? Give it up lad.

      Like

    • 91
      Sir William Waad says:

      The average growth in the economy during Labour’s 13 years was much lower than average growth during the Tories’ previous 17 years.

      Like

  26. 89
    It doesn't add up... says:

    Guido –

    Why haven’t you put your money where your mouth is? Portfolio has been flat ever since 26th March. Perhaps you’ve been too nervous that the inflows have merely been a flight to “quality” in the eyes of Moody’s, easily reversed when the OMB tells us just how poor we really are.

    Like

  27. 90
    Vince, Gideons Bitch says:

    Now the Tories are in Power its so funny reading Guido become an apologist

    errrrrrr kidding yourself arent you !!!!!!

    4900 now in prospect for Footsie..

    Like

  28. 97
    MandyPickleSniffer says:

    With all due respect, you’re taking two issues and linking them together as if they are directly related…your cause and effect is just plain wrong. To show that Gilts are rallying, and to link that with the election result is just plain wrong.

    Gilts have not been rallying because the markets “like” the change coalition, they’ve been rallying because we have a global asset allocation out of stocks and into bonds. We have had a major shift in sentiment away from inflation to deflation. The market sentiment has abruptly turned away from ‘recovery’ and many now seem to think that the entire Equity rally of 2009 was all a mirage. Stocks are down over 15%. Hopefully it’s just a correction, but the fear is that we’re back into the 2008-style bear market….and consequently, people have flocked to the safety of government bonds.

    If you look at the US, government bonds over there have rallied from 4% to 3.2%…. I suppose you can take any random incidents and place them side by side on a timeline and then try to argue for a “cause & effect”….like saying “US bonds rally massively after Obama’s healthcare plan gets markets approval”. You might as well say “UK Bonds rally after Chelsea wins the FA Cup” !

    The true test would be to compare how much various government bonds have rallied, and try to take out the portion of the rally which is specifically related to your thesis. If all stock markets were down by 10%, and all government bond markets were up by a certain amount, and yet UK Gilts had rallied by x percent MORE, then you could say that perhaps the markets “like” what’s going on with the fiscal efforts in the UK, and perhaps they do actually like the coalition after all. But you can’t just look at a bond market rally (or look at how much yields have dropped by) in isolation. You need to look at relative performance…what’s happened to the spread between UK Gilts & Bunds, or the spread btw Gilts and US Treasuries? And also, what sterling has done vs the euro & the dollar.

    Even then, it would be difficult to ascertain whether any outperformance by UK Gilts was because of politics…Gilts might very well have rallied because the market has realised that Labour have completely fukked the economy so badly that no matter what we do we’re doomed for a decade’s worth of recession or extremely slow growth. I think a lot of the scaremongering from the Tories about what would happen to the pound & to gilts in the event of a hung parliament was based on the premise of a weak coalition where there would be no single strong leader to push thru any of the tough medecine which was required to get the deficit down. As it turns out, we seem to have a coalition that might actually work, and where the parties involved may actualy be able to come together and do something substantial for the deficit (as opposed to labour Hunts like badger-faced Darling who keeps on yapping frm the sidelines, as if he has any moral authority to even offer an opinion on the matter…you bankrupted the country, how dare you stand there and try and criticise the people who are cleaning up after your lies & thievery?).

    You’re correct in stating that the markets initially sank when they thought we might have a Lib-Lab coaltion, and that they rallied when we got a Lib-Con coalition. But all the stuff about how the market’s rallied by 50 basis points, and how much the markets must clearly love the coalition, is all a bit weak…The factors that drive bond markets are far more complex than that.

    Like

  29. 100
    Anonymous says:

    Ooh, I like these pretty graphs. Can the Tory stooge please show one of FTSE and the $:£ rate plotted aginst the coaltion time in power.

    Like

  30. 103
    allan akhbar says:

    the ‘gilt meerkat’ is a farce…….spotty kids trading off of charts with no understanding of economics+ reading shite like gann corner…….

    the uk is bust.we had to print £225 billion……….

    spain is also fooked.there banks have been the biggest borrowers from the ecb…..the country is full of unsold property and the banks have not written any of it down………who will buy them? not the 8m+ uk unemployed.

    this is what happens when stupid twats like mcshite and his gang of bum boys set out to ruin a country…….and is repeated across the western world.

    Like

  31. 111
    Vince, Gideons Bitch says:

    The funny part is Guido and his Tory friends are hoping ( rather stupidly ) that the Euro zone areas will fail. Idealogical dickheads.

    Firstly wasnt it the Tories who claimed that Britain was worst placed during the recession, now they claim we were and are best placed…errrrr

    Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal – I wonder how many goods and sevices UK PLC export to these countries. If they they fail we fail with them, so careful what you wish for

    Furthermore, 2 million expat brits live in either Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal . All will be soon knocking on the front door of good old Great Britain. 4 Million on dole before next summer.

    Like

    • 137
      Foxy Fuchsochs says:

      There is a huge mass of unhappily stranded expats out there. There’s a honeymoon period of about a year before they acclimatise and start wearing jumpers in eighty-degree heat. The locals are pleasant enough – but it doesn’t feel like home. Selling up and cashing in means they simply cannot afford to move back. They certainly won’t get very far up the ladder for social housing if they try.

      It is a tragedy, repeated hundreds – if not hundreds of thousands – of times.

      Like

  32. 123
    Vince, Gideons Bitch says:

    Equitable Life compensation …. oh Dear. Another 4.5 bn cuts in the offing to cover rich tory voters who make poor investments

    Like

    • 132
      Justice for Equitable Life scandal says:

      My parents are neither rich nor Tory voters, so f*ck you!

      New Labour stole from the Equitable pension pot, and so did the company. The FSA failed to regulate. It is “the right thing to do” to pay back that stolen money.

      Obviously this coalition is not like floater Maxwell or a certain Labour Lord who think that pension pots are their personal wealth to play with.

      Like

  33. 130
    298,257 says:

    I always like a graph with no scale on the vertical axis, it really makes my day

    Like

  34. 133
    Matthew says:

    The remarkable thing about the Coalition’s calming influence on the government bond markets, after the fears over a LibLab pact, is it didn’t just apply to the UK Gilt market, but the exact same pattern can be seen in the far larger US Treasury market.

    Oh…

    Like

    • 138
      Tapestry says:

      Guido thinks news moves markets.

      It is fear which is driving investors to buy gilts not hope.

      Governments can borrow cheaper for now, because they are seen as safety. This is not an endorsement of the coalition. Look at the chart. It was rising from the start.

      It makes a good story to link politics with money, but the trend of falling gilt interest rates/rising prices started about three months ago.

      Like

  35. 134
    Matthew says:

    As in this chart of US Treasury yields

    Like


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VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Before Miliband spoke, a school choir sang ‘Fix You’ by Coldplay. The first verse of which goes like this:

“When you try your best, but you don’t succeed
When you get what you want, but not what you need
When you feel so tired, but you can’t sleep
Stuck in reverse”



cynic says:

Can anyone help me? I went on holiday a week ago and returned to find someone has pulled out the stake and Gordon Brown is back and acting as Prime Minister. What did I miss? Has there been a snap election?


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