Sources say the negotiating teams have a deal to sell their respective parties.  We’ll know what shape that deal takes shortly…

LibDemVoice has just released a poll of LibDem members – 80% say that without significant progress on electoral reform the deal is off.  So that is one part of the triple-lock that the key may not be in in.  The Federal Executive is the other part of the lock – some 35 strong, which means that if 9 liberal-lefties or PR purists say nay, it will have less than 75% support and the deal is off.

It ain’t going to be easy for Clegg to get 75% support from his MPs and the Fed Exec for a full blown coalition with the Tories unless there’s a solid deal on PR, which it doesn’t seem there is (at least in the eyes of LibDem activists – some of whom think securing anything less than immediate legislation for STV would be a sell out).  So, say the LibDem triple lock stays locked, what next?

It may be that in that situation some of the more right-wing LibDem MPs are willing to propel Cameron into Downing Street anyway. Cameron may also be willing to offer ministerial positions to any LibDems who do go for UDI if the weirdie-beardie party machinery hampers a deal…