Tories Panic, City Relaxes

George Osborne this afternoon is trying to convince us that a hung parliament will mean higher interest rates as investors panic and the gilt market plunges.   Guido begs to differ, arguing that if on May 7 the Tories went into a Change Coalition with the LibDems – the only party with a leader that admits we need “savage spending cuts”, when the Tories and Labour are being disingenuous in pretending otherwise – the City wouldn’t have a problem.

The hard evidence is clear; since the prospects of a hung parliament jumped after the first TV debate (the bookies now make it an odds on 64% probability) both the pound and the gilt market have rallied. Why?  Well the City was worried about Labour being returned and kamikaze economics being implemented by Chancellor Balls.  A Lib-Con “Change Coalition government with both parties committed to public spending cuts and rapid deficit reduction will actually cheer the City.  Here’s the evidence so far:

The left hand chart is the probability of a hung parliament based on gambler’s bets, the middle chart is the gilt futures price and the right hand chart is the pound against the dollar.    Osborne just quoted a number of  investment banking analyst’s old notes, RBS capital markets analysis this morning concurs with Guido’s analysis:

Weekend press good for Gilts: a) talking up the Liberal Democrats right wing credentials and how they form more coalitions with Conservatives than Labour in councils, so allegedly not that Budget-negative/sclerosis if Con-Lib coalition, which is most likely outcome at this moment according to pollsters; b) polls shift 1-2% back to where they were pre-debates.

Osborne needs to switch on his Bloomberg terminal for a reality check, gilts are now yielding less than 4%, City confidence has risen as Labour’s polling figures have fallen…

Quote of the Day

Tom Newton Dunn, political editor of the Sun, apparently said…

“It is my job to see that Cameron f***ing well gets into Downing Street”

The Brown Nixon Elvis Conspiracy Theory Competition

Guido has been racking his brain for an explanation into the thinking behind the Elvis support act for Gordon.  Here are my top conspiracy theories:

  1. Gordon is living out a Richard Nixon fantasy, he seems himself as a man of substance and policy, like Nixon, facing defeat at the hands of more photogenic and televisual opponents, with Clegg and Cameron playing the role of Kennedy.  So since Nixon and Presley were mates…
  2. Benjamin Wegg-Prosser has a £500 bet with Mandelson on who can succeed in making Gordon look the most ridiculous during the campaign.  Still 10 days to go so Mandelson is not paying up just yet.
  3. Alastair Campbell is back on the bottle and thought it was a good idea late one night.  He did big up the whole cringe-making event.
  4. Wee Dougie Alexander produced some focus group data that showed Elvis was still king in some key demographics, old people, people without iPods, C1, D1 hardworking families. Wee Dougie has now defected to the Miliband camp…
  5. Michael Jackson was unavailable.  He is after all a well known kids entertainer…

Put your theory in the comments please, best theory wins a copy of  The Big Red Book of New Labour Sleaze, competition closes midnight.

Second Labour Candidate Sacked

Former “glamour model” John Cowan has become the second Labour Party parliamentary candidate to be sacked after their online postings were revealed. John Cowan, who was expelled from the Liberal Democrats after sending sexually explicit messages to Labour’s Kerry McCarthy, then tried to join the Tories and eventually ended up as the Labour PPC for South East Cambridgeshire.

Cowan’s racist and sexual rantings have been doing the blog rounds for a week or so and finally ended up in yesterday’s Telegraph.  As nominations have closed there can’t now be a Labour candidate in the race. It will be interesting to see what boost this gives to the Liberal Democrat vote in this safe Tory seat.

Senior Buckingham Tory Comes Out for Farage

Grassroots Conservative activists in Buckingham are mostly either staying at home, voting for Farage or in some cases campaigning for him. Sir Nicholas Bonsor, a Deputy Lieutenant of Buckinghamshire and a former Conservative MP, will be one of those canvassing for UKIP’s Nigel Farage.  UKIP say it is the first crack to open publicly in the Buckingham Constituency Association.

Disenfranchised Tories in the constituency are quietly putting their weight behind UKIP – Sir Nicholas is a patron of the Buckingham Conservative Association and a former foreign office minister.  Bercow’s disloyalty and the behaviour of his wife infuriates local party members. Bonsor is a big Chihuahua

UPDATE : Punters have marked up Farage’s chances of taking the seat from 25% to 35% this morning.  Farage raised £3,000 over the weekend from online donations.

10 Days to Destroy the Labour Party

As the Tories shift resources towards Labour seats and the Labour Party vote leaves the building with Elvis, the tantalising prospect of a Labour Party wipe out seems possible.  Labour’s messages seem calibrated only to appeal only to their core activist vote and their client vote dependent on welfare transfers.  Middle-England is not being wooed at all.  Consequently Labour is now polling at levels last seen under Michael Foot.  Has anyone else noticed that Tony Blair is supposedly unable to campaign because he is still stuck overseas due to volcanic ash.  Nothing to do with not wanting to be tainted with a loser?

Rich & Mark's Monday Morning View

Quote of the Day

Nick Clegg wrote in The Liberal Moment last year…

“Liberal Democrats have opposed Labour’s centralised model because it jars with our core beliefs… I believe Labour’s basic approach to governance – to social, political, economic and environmental progress is fundamentally flawed”.

Labour Say Now Want Serious Policy Focus

Labour have released the draft of a letter to broadcasters calling for a greater policy focus in the final days of the campaign – they complain that the other parties have refused to sign it. There is a good reason for that, their copy was signed by Elvis.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Gordon is Leaving the Building (Soon)

[vodpod id=Video.3488863&w=480&h=320&fv=videoId%3D79949830001%26amp%3BplayerID%3D69900095001%26amp%3Bdomain%3Dembed%26amp%3BdynamicStreaming%3Dtrue]

Do you think Mandy and Bad Al Campbell are just taking the piss out of Gordon now? “Yeah, it’ll be great, the headlines will be all ‘Gordon’s comeback tour’ like Elvis in Vegas!” It is a farewell tour, isn’t it…[…]

+ READ MORE +

Getting Real : The Change Coalition (Part II)

A few weeks ago Guido asked a CCHQ insider privy to strategy “What is the negotiating strategy with the LibDems?  Is it true Matthew Hancock is in charge of the strategy?” He laughed “the joke of the negotiation strategy is that there isn’t one.[…]

+ READ MORE +

#TV10 Tactical Voting Will Kick Balls Out

Ed Balls has a notional majority of 9,000 in his newly created Morley & Outwood seat. That should be taken with a pinch of salt, it is a new seat created after boundary changes, in local council elections over the last 2 years Labour has polled badly, even coming fourth on occasion.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Quote of the Day

Guardian Magazine asks Ed Balls today…

Guardian: “What’s the worst thing anyone’s ever said to you?”
Ed Balls: “You look like Gordon Brown in that suit”
[…]

+ READ MORE +

Saturday Seven Up

7upIf you were not one of the 77,080 visitors viewing 504,990 pages over the last seven days, here are the seven most popular stories (in order of popularity) that you missed:

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Guy News : Inside Spin City

Subscribe to the Guidogram[…]

+ READ MORE +

Quote of the Day

Danny Finkelstein says…

“You have to be impressed with Gordon Brown. His two children are only 6 years old and 3 years old. And yet it turns out that at bathtime, they squabble about membership of the European People’s Party.”
[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Jeremy Corbyn at his leadership launch:

“Labour is stronger.”

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