From YouGov:

Leaving aside your own party preference, who do you think performed best overall in tonight’s debate?

Nick Clegg 51%
David Cameron 29%
Gordon Brown 19%
Don’t know 2%

Fieldwork was conducted between 21.55 and 22.10 on 15th April; sample size: 1,091 viewers of the debate.

Labour’s trusted twitterers are on the front page of the party’s website, further confirming the belief in Labour circles that twitter is some kind of alternative to democracy.  They have made sure that it won’t be easily hacked.  Not sure what the value is – presumably they are hoping that hacks will consult the page to see what the Labour faithful think of the debate.  A virtual twitter spin room… hmmm…  come back to Guido’s later this evening for a rival virtual twitter spin room…

Spin is cheap, punters put their money where their mouth is, currently the punters on Political Smarkets rate the chances of victory for the leaders in the debates thus:

16:45 David Cameron 55%  Nick Clegg 48% Gordon Brown 29%

18:30 David Cameron 65%  Nick Clegg 48% Gordon Brown 20%

Gordon’s price has improved from this morning where punters where giving him only a 10% chance of winning* tonight’s debate, Clegg was favourite though in late betting Cameron has pulled ahead.   All to play for…

*Winning defined by ICM’s post debate polling results.

Mark Austin on the ITV lunchtime news asked Tom Bradby…

“Do the three leaders realise how important tonight’s debate is?”

Despite dismissing business leaders backing Tory plans, Labour have been trying to spin some economists backing their plans today. A quick peek at who these sages are reveals some real gems. Take Jonathan Perraton, Marco Gundermann  and Andy Denis for example. Do you trust these geeks more than the country’s most successful business leaders? All three are quasi-Marxist university lecturers and Gunderman started his doctorate fourteen years ago. No sign of it yet…

After months of speculation, hype, arguments, tantrums and rule changes the first of the debates are finally here. Guido hears that after all the effort that Sky News put in to make the debates happen, they might be a little miffed that they won’t be chairing the first of its kind. But what will tonight actually achieve for the political class and more importantly how many will actually watch?

Ten million people watch Coronation Street, a similar number tuned in to Doctor Who on Saturday. Eight million tuned into see Nick Griffin on Question Time. The BBC are sending over sixty staff to cover ITV’s debate, so who know’s how much taxpayers cash will be spent when it’s actually their turn. For these debates to be worth the millions being spent they need to be a game-changer and need to pull in the viewers.  They need, in the jargon of spin, to get cut-through…

The smart money seems to be on nine to thirteen million viewers, less than a quarter of the forty-five million registered voters. Guido has a feeling the debates may just be stirring up apathy…

As the hacks following the Prime Mentalist were sitting in traffic on the M62 an hour or so ago, there were boos and jeers as the Tory’s Vote for Change convoy sped past in the opposite direction. And it wasn’t just political, apparently all is not well on the Brown Battle Bus. Despite having paid £13,000 for the pleasure of  travelling with the PM, they hardly ever do. He’s on the plane with them – secured off at the front, but never travels on the bus. He is also dodging questions and as a result of a concern over too many sound booms in the pictures, Labour insisted that Brown would only have one pooled radio mic. Cue shock horror when the sound guy wired him up at one stop and told the PM that he was now live and the hacks could hear everything he said or did. One minute later Jonah announces that he is off to the loo…

Apparently the coach driver has no idea where he is most of the time. At one point he managed to miss Stansted airport and people and things keep on getting left behind. One Sun hackette was left on a train waving and screaming as her colleagues drove off. The next day it was the lunch that got left behind resulting in a raging mob. The anger is made worse by the fact those travelling on the Ashcroft-mobile are living it up. Via The Times we learn “as the Tory plane headed for the North West yesterday, passengers dined on parma ham, mozzarella and rocket salad, followed by rare roast lamb on a bed of lentils and peppers, with chocolate mousse for pud.” On the bright side spare a thought for the cub-reporters following the Lib Dems. All they get is a warm cheese sandwich.

Image taken from the travelling Niall Paterson’s Twitter, which is worth a follow for bus news. Guido understands he has so far managed to keep his clothes on…

CCHQ says…

“This is not the first time that Macintyre’s made up stories about us, and I’m guessing it won’t be the last. To be honest he must be delusional…”

Tonight is debate night, the single event with the potential to alter the direction of the campaign more than any other. Punters on the PoliticSmarkets website can bet on who will win the debate tonight : the smart money gives Gordon Brown a 10% chance of emerging victorious, David Cameron a 47% chance and makes Nick Clegg the narrow favourite with a 48% probability of winning tonight’s debate.  In one sense Clegg is already the winner just by getting equal billing…