Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is predicting the UK economy will shrink until the fourth quarter of this year, contradicting the Chancellor’s optimistic forecast for the economy to come out of recession in July. Gross domestic product will fall 2.7% in 2009 the NIESR propellor-heads reckon. Even when the economy stops declining, unemployment will still continue to increase into 2010. Guido predicts it will be half-way through a Cameron government before the economy returns to 2007 peaks. So that is two predictions for the price of one…

UPDATE : Nationwide’s Consumer Confidence Index figure has just come out. It shows that consumer confidence has hit a record low during January, dropping to 40 points. Which is half the level it was at before Jonah became PM.