Glenrothes : Punters V Pundits, Round II

Over at Politicalbetting.com Mike Smithson is encouraging the punters to vote on who they think is going to win the Glenrothes by-election – Labour or the SNP?
  • As of 0900 this morning the punters (after 200 votes) are splitting 61% for the SNP and 39% for Labour.
  • Over on PoliticsHome the PH100 Index “daily tracker of uk insider and expert opinion” is calling it 61% / 31% for Labour to win. Strikingly inverse proportions.
Over on Betfair the punters are putting their money where their mouths are and making the SNP odds on favourites. Back in July the punters made fools of the pundits over the outcome of the Glasgow East by-election. The pundits are as fickle as teenage girls, the punters are more calculating.

The London based punditry are out of touch, they talk too much to each other. Our old friend Tom Watson has been briefing the press that Labour will win Glenrothes and this will be a great victory for Gordon. He has convinced Gordon to stake what little political capital he has on a Glenrothes comeback campaigning in the constituency. However, as Ben Brogan has detected, so chronic is the shortage of local activists and supporters Labour are press-ganging English Labour MPs and Northern CLP activists to trek past Hadrian’s Wall to help in the constituency. Not exactly a sign of a forthcoming resounding victory.

Guido thinks the punters not the pundits are right, again. Gordon’s personal visit should, if the curse of the one-eyed son of the manse still holds, have doomed Labour’s candidate. Labour are throwing the kitchen sink at this, heck the 10p tax bailout cost a few billion during the Crewe by-election, this time the bailout of Scottish banks cost tens of billions for this by-election. It will be close…



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

GuidoFawkes Quote of the Day

David Cameron tells MPs after voting:

“Wouldn’t miss this for the world. Secret ballots very important. Remember the Chartists.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

WALTER MITTY CV OF ANTI-FRACKING CANDIDATE WALTER MITTY CV OF ANTI-FRACKING CANDIDATE
Cassetteboy v Cameron and Farage Cassetteboy v Cameron and Farage
MICROSOFT SHAKES DOWN PUBLIC SECTOR FOR DOSH MICROSOFT SHAKES DOWN PUBLIC SECTOR FOR DOSH
WATCH: Toby Young Skewers Labour Zero Hours Contract Attack Line WATCH: Toby Young Skewers Labour Zero Hours Contract Attack Line
MAIL TRICKED INTO QUOTING BATMAN FILM IN PLANE CRASH COVERAGE MAIL TRICKED INTO QUOTING BATMAN FILM IN PLANE CRASH COVERAGE
ANTI-FRACKING PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE WANTED TO WORK FOR FRACKERS ANTI-FRACKING PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE WANTED TO WORK FOR FRACKERS

Crick Gets Paxo’d Crick Gets Paxo’d
Cameron’s Secret A-List Cameron’s Secret A-List
Corrections and Clarifications: Brooks Newmark Corrections and Clarifications: Brooks Newmark
What is Wrong With the Lobby? What is Wrong With the Lobby?
Arrogant Bercow: “I’m Not Going Anywhere” Arrogant Bercow: “I’m Not Going Anywhere”
GOVERNMENT SHELLS OUT FOR PHOTO OF DEAD ZEBRA GOVERNMENT SHELLS OUT FOR PHOTO OF DEAD ZEBRA
DWP Press Office Wins the Internet DWP Press Office Wins the Internet
Two-Faced Chuka Ruins Labour Attack Ad Two-Faced Chuka Ruins Labour Attack Ad
Cameron Mauls Miliband at PMQs Cameron Mauls Miliband at PMQs
Actual Pub Landlord Likes Farage Actual Pub Landlord Likes Farage
Dave’s SNP Poodle Zinger Dave’s SNP Poodle Zinger
GREEDY SOLAR INDUSTRY WANTS MORE PUBLIC CASH GREEDY SOLAR INDUSTRY WANTS MORE PUBLIC CASH
This is the worst thing the LibDems  have ever done This is the worst thing the LibDems have ever done
CLIMATE CHANGE FUELLED MOSQUITOES ARE NOT COMING TO GET YOU CLIMATE CHANGE FUELLED MOSQUITOES ARE NOT COMING TO GET YOU
ORDNANCE SURVEY OPENS UP DATA MAPPING TREASURE CHEST ORDNANCE SURVEY OPENS UP DATA MAPPING TREASURE CHEST
“I’d S**k Off David Cameron” “I’d S**k Off David Cameron”
WATCH: Cameron Heckled By Pensioners WATCH: Cameron Heckled By Pensioners
WATCH: Gove v Campbell WATCH: Gove v Campbell
Politician dumps his wife over sexy selfies Politician dumps his wife over sexy selfies
UKIP PROTESTERS ORGANISED BY GREEN LOBBYIST UKIP PROTESTERS ORGANISED BY GREEN LOBBYIST
You’ve Been Cricked! You’ve Been Cricked!
He’s Not Dancing Anymore He’s Not Dancing Anymore
Miliband’s Hedge Funder Hypocrisy Miliband’s Hedge Funder Hypocrisy
NATIONAL TRUST CLAIMS CLIMATE CHANGE IS “BIGGEST THREAT” NATIONAL TRUST CLAIMS CLIMATE CHANGE IS “BIGGEST THREAT”