Glenrothes : Punters V Pundits, Round II

Over at Politicalbetting.com Mike Smithson is encouraging the punters to vote on who they think is going to win the Glenrothes by-election – Labour or the SNP?
  • As of 0900 this morning the punters (after 200 votes) are splitting 61% for the SNP and 39% for Labour.
  • Over on PoliticsHome the PH100 Index “daily tracker of uk insider and expert opinion” is calling it 61% / 31% for Labour to win. Strikingly inverse proportions.
Over on Betfair the punters are putting their money where their mouths are and making the SNP odds on favourites. Back in July the punters made fools of the pundits over the outcome of the Glasgow East by-election. The pundits are as fickle as teenage girls, the punters are more calculating.

The London based punditry are out of touch, they talk too much to each other. Our old friend Tom Watson has been briefing the press that Labour will win Glenrothes and this will be a great victory for Gordon. He has convinced Gordon to stake what little political capital he has on a Glenrothes comeback campaigning in the constituency. However, as Ben Brogan has detected, so chronic is the shortage of local activists and supporters Labour are press-ganging English Labour MPs and Northern CLP activists to trek past Hadrian’s Wall to help in the constituency. Not exactly a sign of a forthcoming resounding victory.

Guido thinks the punters not the pundits are right, again. Gordon’s personal visit should, if the curse of the one-eyed son of the manse still holds, have doomed Labour’s candidate. Labour are throwing the kitchen sink at this, heck the 10p tax bailout cost a few billion during the Crewe by-election, this time the bailout of Scottish banks cost tens of billions for this by-election. It will be close…



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Cameron on Trump:

“I have to say that knowing the gruelling nature of the primaries and what you have to go through, anyone who makes it through that extraordinary contest to lead their party into a general election deserves our respect.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

BOTTOMS UP! HUGH BONNEVILLE CELEBRATES STAGE SUCCESS BOTTOMS UP! HUGH BONNEVILLE CELEBRATES STAGE SUCCESS
NUTJOB PLAID CANDIDATE: UK CREATED ISIS NUTJOB PLAID CANDIDATE: UK CREATED ISIS
MEDIA MINISTER MONITOR: LEAVE WINNING AIR WAR MEDIA MINISTER MONITOR: LEAVE WINNING AIR WAR
CPS SAYS UP TO COPS TO PURSUE TORIES CPS SAYS UP TO COPS TO PURSUE TORIES
IPSO: COKE PROBABLY WAS SNORTED AT MOMENTUM PARTY IPSO: COKE PROBABLY WAS SNORTED AT MOMENTUM PARTY
PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling
DECC: Please Think Before You Print DECC: Please Think Before You Print
TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER
SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS
CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES
SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS
TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS” TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS”
CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE
KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV
NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE
HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN
LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER
TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA
GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN
UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT
LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE
THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET
LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY” LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY”
ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA
DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR” DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR”
KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS” KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS”
DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR
Fiorina Drops Fiorina Drops
£500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED £500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED
SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS