Guido has been telling anyone who would listen over lunch that the media are ready for a change in the Westminster narrative. Guido would point to the Tatler photo-shoot and the Andy Coulson midwifed Cameron on Cameron hagiography by Dylan Jones as the spin tops. The pendulum of the Lobby is ready, eager even, to turn against the too smooth, too cool Cameroons.

CCHQ will be pleased that Gordon has shored up his position, other fresher faces would knock 10 points off their poll lead, Brown is at least that much of a drag on the polls for Labour. The Conservatives are heading to Brum confident that they are on their way to government. The media, in particular the BBC, will be more than willing to throw a spanner in the works. As Dave said, “the deal is far from sealed”. The narrative is ready to shift. One thing Guido noticed about Gordon’s speech was that it borrowed more from McCain-Palin than from Obama. Experience versus change is the only viable line of attack for Gordon, they will use it. Will the media buy in to it?

UPDATE : Dave has just delivered a speech at the Carlton Political Dinner. According to a seasoned co-conspirator it was a good one and went down well with a friendly business crowd.

He started off by mocking Brown – said he was surprised that Sam Cameron hadn’t introduced him, then said she was “my wife, not a prop”. Dave joked about how the shadow cabinet were great because “they come up with loads of ideas and I take all the credit”. He also pushed the ‘no complacency’ ‘mountain to climb’ line quite hard. Last year’s Carlton speech was effectively a rehearsal for Dave’s conference speech. According to Guido’s source, the business crowd were in love with him.

Adam Boulton, Sky News

As Sarah Brown came on “Beautiful Day’ by U2 was playing in the background, you could hear the lyrics:

Thought it was a nice touch that Sarah introduced him. It was also nice that he shook her hand after the speech. Like loving husbands do.

The jury has been off to retrace Menezes’ last moments at Stockwell station. Did they notice this inappropriate film poster?

If you’re at conference pls make a point of speaking to lobby correspondents who are trying to distort party unity, to help them u’stand David’s speech was a unifying one which is why it went down so well in the hall. Thanks.

No picture credit, no payment. Associated Newspapers made £83m last year. For some reason employees of Associated Newspapers seem to be the the most common thieving parasites – lifting stories without credit or payment. Guido has had a few run-ins with diarists, most of which have been settled amicably over a bottle or two. Not Sebastian Shakespeare however, he is the editor of the Londoner’s Diary in the Standard and he is a thieving ****ing magpie. Latest examples: Exhibit A, Exhibit B. He makes no bones about it, in a heated row last year Sebastian admitted he steals Guido’s work and “so what?” Harry Phibbs who freelances for Londoner’s Diary subsequently had lunch with Guido and said that it should be taken as a compliment. Like a burglar being caught and saying to his victim “never mind, we both have great taste in old masterpieces”. F*** off you thief.

By popular request Guido will be live blogging the Brown speech from 2 pm this afternoon and you will all be able to join in the fun in the Cover It Live chatroom. Don’t forget by using this reminder thingy. It should be a barrel of laughs.

Will anyone give Guido odds on the Prime Mentalist saying “Getting on with the job”? Please?

Today’s speech will no doubt include a section about how he for many years had, with great insight, been calling for global financial regulation. His speech in 2005 to the CBI however was pure New Labour neo-liberalism, praising enterprise, free markets and globalisation. He promised the corporate class deregulation, a “new risk based model of regulation” for financial services

“no inspection without justification, no form filling without justification, and no information requirements without justification, not just a light touch but a limited touch.”

So there was no risk-based reason to clamp down on Northern Rock?

“But the real prize for memory loss must go to Ed Balls. On Monday he said that those who had advocated “light touch regulation” had been, in his words, “routed”. This is the same Ed Balls who as Chief Economic Adviser to the Treasury for eight years boasted about the “light touch” regime of City regulation he had designed. This is also the same Ed Balls who then as City Minister called for “a light touch approach at the global and EU level”. The star player of Labour’s football team has scored a spectacular own-goal.”