Sunday, August 31, 2008

Rich & Mark’s Monday Morning Views

+++ S&P Predicting UK Housing Market to Fall 30% By 2009 +++

Bloomberg TV is tonight reporting the Standard & Poors credit rating agency predicting a fall of 30% in UK house prices (from 2007 peak) in 2009.

Back in April Charles Bean, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, gave an under-reported speech that shook up the Gilts market. It should have shaken up everyone. According to Mr Bean the Bank’s research found that 5% of mortgagors had less than 20% equity in their home. That is equivalent to 650,000 homeowners.

A 30% fall would see more than a million homeowners better off giving the bank the keys to the front door. This could be some bust…

UPDATE : Pound is tumbling as Asian markets open tonight. The pound is now at the weakest it has ever been against the Euro, tumbling against the Swiss Franc as well. Guido is short…

"John McCain Left Both His First Wife and Mitt Romney for Beauty Queens."

Carter Out of the Bonkers Bunker?

The Indy’s Jane Merrick is reporting “that Stephen Carter, Mr Brown’s high-profile strategist, is to leave his job after a bitter turf war inside Downing Street. The public relations guru’s move to a lower-key role is a victory for the Prime Minister’s long-serving advisers….”

Guido is cautious about the story because it smacks of wishful thinking by some in the Brown bunker, Carter and Muir have not been sugar-coating the dire focus group feedback. It stands out that no one else is reporting the demotion story, Merrick may have just been spun by the Brownies.

Getting rid of Carter and replacing Darling with Ed Balls would signal that the Brown bunker is bonkers, the Treasury is clearly in revolt at the £40 billion state house building splurge supposedly planned by Downing Street. Having nationalised home lending via Northern Rock, Gordon plans to double up on the mistake and nationalise home building. A last gasp of socialism to appease the Labour core-vote – public sector mass housing has been such a success hasn’t it? Huge estates of stable families, high employment, low crime and civic responsibility.

Wonder if Vince Cable will support him this time as well?

UPDATE : Dale says Merrick claims the report is triple sourced though Downing Street denies it. If Carter has quit rather than been demoted what does that say about the dysfunction in Downing Street?

Friday, August 29, 2008

Osborne : Is it Brown or Darling Who Is Telling the Truth?

The Chancellor’s candid confession that the economy is tanking worse than previously admitted has been seized on by his shadow. Osborne asks
Who is telling the truth at the top of Government? The Prime Minister says the economic situation isn’t as bad people think and that Britain is well placed to weather the economic storm, but the Chancellor says we are at a 60 year low. Gordon Brown has briefed out stories that he has an economic recovery plan all worked out, meanwhile the Chancellor says the downturn will be more profound and long-lasting than people thought.

Mulling over whether or not to bet the shop against sterling…

UPDATE : The Chancellor in the interview does appear to know the price of eggs. We can relax. Phew.

Newsnight Cock Down Up the Market Report Yet Again

A co-conspirator reports that Newsnight reported the Dow up 171 points tonight. Reassuring in these times of financial market uncertainty. Alas Guido has to report that the BBC’s flagship news and current affairs programme (budget £3 billion) has managed to get it wrong yet again. The Dow closed down 171 points. This would never have happened in Peter Barron’s day, oh hold on…

How hard can it be to report the closing price of the world’s most watched market correctly? Can’t they get a trained monkey to do it?

Friday Caption Contest (Sane Edition)

U.S. Growth 3.3% v U.K. Growth 0.0%

If all our economic woes are made in America as Gordon claims, why is that their economy is showing healthy growth (despite high oil prices) and the U.K. economy is flat-lining?

Could it have something to do with George Bush’s timely $150 billion bi-partisan growth stimulus package in February? Both the Democrats and Republicans are running on tax cutting platforms. We have bi-partisan tax and spend sloth policies. Guido understands the politics of it, the economics of it are what disappoints. The Finkelstein “you can’t win promising tax cuts” approach was always timid, it is now the wrong strategy at the wrong time. The voters have moved on, they recognise the economy needs tax cuts to grow.

Obama’s Speech Blog Style

Here it is in a word cloud. News you can use blog style. Cameroons who swoon at the words of “the One” should note: he is running on a promise to cut income taxes…

Here is the bit of the speech Cameron could lift with minor alterations:

“For eighteen long months, you have stood up, one by one, and said enough to the politics of the past. You understand that in this election, the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result. You have shown what history teaches us – that at defining moments like this one, the change we need doesn’t come from Washington. Change comes to Washington. Change happens because the American people demand it – because they rise up and insist on new ideas and new leadership, a new politics for a new time. America, this is one of those moments.”

18 months or so to change in Westminster…

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Maguire "Promoting Malicious Narratives"

According to the moonbats the Is Brown Bonkers? meme is cooked up by Guido on the orders of Andy Coulson at CCHQ. They reckon that Guido is
“starting and constantly promoting malicious narratives… [so] that it becomes a talking point for the mainstream media and that is how [Brown] becomes framed. The Republicans in the United States have been great at this for decades.”

Succintly echoing Nick Robinson’s accusation that Dale and Guido try to “make the political weather”. Actually we look at politics and report the political weather as we see it. Guido thinks the evidence is strong that we have a psychologically flawed PM.

Even Kevin Maguire is indulging in a bit of innuendo himself in the New Statesman.

It must be getting desperately bad for the Brownies when a former stalwart like Maguire starts mocking the Prime Mentalist. The end must be nigh…

Seen Elsewhere

Labour Beats UKIP in South Yorkshire | LabourList
Mock the Week’s Weak Comedy | Nigel Farage
Can Jim Murphy Save Scottish Labour? | Guardian
There is Still Appetite for the Westminster Lunch | Jon Craig
Labour Turn Their Backs on Jewish Community | Dan Hodges
Chivalry is Not Dead | Laura Perrins
Jonathan Jones is a Tw*t | Iain Dale
Second Scotland Poll Suggests Labour Wipeout | Times
Paedo Probe Boss Urged to Quit | Sun
Keynesian Tories Won’t Eliminate Deficit | Tim Montgomerie
Whitehall Doesn’t Work | Dom Cummings


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


David Cameron drug policy reformer and leadership contender in 2005…

“Politicians attempt to appeal to the lowest common denominator by posturing with tough policies and calling for crackdown after crackdown. Drugs policy has been failing for decades.”



“Digger” Murdoch says:

Is it just me, or is Nigel Farage just a top hat and a monocle away from being a Batman villain?


Tip off Guido
Web Guido's Archives

Subscribe me to:






RSS


AddThis Feed Button
Archive


Labels
Guido Reads
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,553 other followers