Daniel himself has been saying for five months that there’ll be an election this year which he reckons means almost certainly there won’t be “as I’m the world’s worst forecaster”.
Dateline : 4 October
Over the last week or so Guido has been tracking the pundits predictions and will be updating this list (do add pundits names and predictions in the comments):
- Peter Riddell – “it will almost certainly be on November 1 or 8.”*
- Tim Montgomerie – is betting on an autumn election
- Iain Dale – thought Gordon might call it during Tory conference
- Nick Robinson tells us the preparations for an immediate election are real
- Team Cameron – we don’t know but “we are on battle stations”.
- Peter Riddell also ruled out a 2007 election last June.
- Adam Boulton – told Guido he didn’t think this autumn, but you never know.
- Mike Smithson – thinks Gordon will play it extra long, not before 2009.
- Fraser Nelson – can’t see why Gordon would want to shorten his reign.
- Benedict Brogan – not now, according to his Brownite sources.
- Steve Richards suspects Dave will be able to claim next week that he stopped the mighty Mr Brown from calling a November election.
- Michael White suspects not soon.
- Dizzy Thinks not now.
- Janet Daley wrote in July “I will stake my commentator’s credibility on the prediction that he will not do so, because I believe that his sense of his own political seriousness would make it inconceivable that he would cut and run before he has established his new dispensation and stamped his own objectives on government.”
Guido has been laying “before Dec 2007” on Betfair if you think Guido is wrong. It has been known…
*Peter Riddell has been been in touch to say he has been quoted out of context and he hasn’t a clue when the election is going to be.