Time for Tactical Decisions from CCHQ and Cowley Street

The LibDems are getting pummelled in the polls – this morning a YouGov poll has them down another 3% to 13% with the Tories unchanged on 33%. Guido finds it hard to believe the accuracy of this poll – with Labour at 44% that makes them more popular than in 1997 when they scored 43%. Not very likely is it?
A hung parliament is still the most likely outcome of the next election whatever the polls currently say. The only way to ensure that outcome is to take seats off Labour, swapping Tory and LibDem seats will not change the government.

Is it time for them to consider tactical voting? Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com has made the case for this before, if you want to get rid of this government, vote for the party best placed to beat New Labour in your constituency. In Scotland that seems to have happened already, the business community has switched from the no-hope Tories to the SNP. In return the SNP has begun to talk more about “Enterprise Scotland” and is now polling even stronger than during the recent local elections.

The problem is that LibDem and Tory activists hate each other. They would not countenance any explicit instruction to vote for the other party. Often at each others neck in local government, the idea of a non-aggression pact is unpalatable. Rather than going into any protracted negotiations the Tories should just direct resources away from LibDem incumbents and into the battle in Labour seats. The LibDems political antennae would detect the shift, they would consequently be able to shift their more limited resources away from defending LibDem seats against Tory insurgents and towards attacking Labour incumbents.

Encouraging Tories and LibDems to work together is not easy, but there is one issue that is heartfelt by LibDems and Tories in their libertarian hearts – ID cards. Pushing ID cards up the political agenda would place Tories and LibDems on the same side of the barricades against an authoritarian government. Psychologically a useful pre-cursor to a post-election deal. If Tory and LibDem activists worked together on the NO 2 ID campaign they might even find their rivals more likeable. As Brown begins to sound more and more authoritarian, emphasising “Strength”, “Britain” and “British jobs for British workers” the Liberal Democrats may realise they have a lot more in common with Cameron’s liberal Conservatives than with Brown’s ideology of state power. Ming may lean towards Brown, but the next LibDem leader is less likely to do so…


Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Liam Fox shreds Cameron’s Calais scaremongering:

“Sad and disappointed to see our Prime Minister stoop to this level of scaremongering, especially as he knows the Calais agreement is nothing to do with the EU and agreed between the two govts”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

SADIQ LOSES IT WITH BBC JOURNALIST OVER TFL FARES SUMS SADIQ LOSES IT WITH BBC JOURNALIST OVER TFL FARES SUMS
FRENCH GOVERNMENT DISPUTES CAMERON ON CALAIS FRENCH GOVERNMENT DISPUTES CAMERON ON CALAIS
EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT
EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT? EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT?
TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING
LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF
CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS” CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS”
SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK
HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER? HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER?
KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER
Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers
EU CABINET GUIDE: WHITTO MOVES UP, GOVE TORN EU CABINET GUIDE: WHITTO MOVES UP, GOVE TORN
PROTESTER CHUCKS DILDO AT MINISTER PROTESTER CHUCKS DILDO AT MINISTER
LEAVE 9 POINTS AHEAD SINCE DAVE’S DEAL LEAVE 9 POINTS AHEAD SINCE DAVE’S DEAL
VENEZUELA FORCED TO FLY IN PLANELOADS OF CASH VENEZUELA FORCED TO FLY IN PLANELOADS OF CASH
SILLY SAUSAGE: TORY MP’S COMMONS DOUBLE ENTENDRE SILLY SAUSAGE: TORY MP’S COMMONS DOUBLE ENTENDRE
SRAELI EX-AMBASSADOR ‘LATE NIGHT VISITS’ SCANDAL BREWING SRAELI EX-AMBASSADOR ‘LATE NIGHT VISITS’ SCANDAL BREWING
UKIP WARNS OF RISK OF TURKEY JOINING EU UKIP WARNS OF RISK OF TURKEY JOINING EU
HIGHEST-EARNING MP DIDN’T NOTICE £400,000 INCOME HIGHEST-EARNING MP DIDN’T NOTICE £400,000 INCOME
BORIS’ NEW BALDNESS-BATTLING BARNET BORIS’ NEW BALDNESS-BATTLING BARNET
GUIDO’S FASHION TIPS: GET THE GRASSROOTS OUT UNIFORM GUIDO’S FASHION TIPS: GET THE GRASSROOTS OUT UNIFORM
BORIS AND FARAGE PAN DAVE’S RED CARD BORIS AND FARAGE PAN DAVE’S RED CARD
WHEN CAMERON AND OSBORNE LAUGHED AT A ‘RED CARD’ WHEN CAMERON AND OSBORNE LAUGHED AT A ‘RED CARD’
SADIQ DUCKS CITY AIRPORT ROW SADIQ DUCKS CITY AIRPORT ROW
DIRE POST-DEAL PAPERS FOR PM DIRE POST-DEAL PAPERS FOR PM
FABBERS’ VOMIT-INDUCING EUROPHILES REVEALED FABBERS’ VOMIT-INDUCING EUROPHILES REVEALED
UNION BARON: “ALL THE TORIES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT AND SHOT” UNION BARON: “ALL THE TORIES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT AND SHOT”
STELLA THE ‘HASH SMOKING MOROCCAN TOURIST’ STELLA THE ‘HASH SMOKING MOROCCAN TOURIST’
CORBYN BROTHER’S BIZARRE RESPONSE TO DEATH OF MAN AND 4 YEAR OLD SON: “LOL” CORBYN BROTHER’S BIZARRE RESPONSE TO DEATH OF MAN AND 4 YEAR OLD SON: “LOL”