Labour has a thumping majority in Ealing Southall and will, unless something spectacular happens, hold the seat. The interesting race is for second place.

A re-energised Conservative party are intent on squeezing the 3% deficit with the LibDems, who are struggling badly in the polls. The LibDems live for by-elections, but the Tories are hoping to give them a bloody nose this time. Is this wise?

Ming’s leadership is in desperate difficulties. He has led them from polling at the +20% level to the low teens. This poor showing is becoming worryingly consistent. If they knock the LibDems into third place it will add dramatically to the calls for Ming to stand down. Is that really in the electoral interests of the Tories?