As the wheels fall off Blair’s explanation, with his “they were party peerages” line in particular falling apart as donors deny it and the written applications themselves contradict Blair, things look more dicey. In addition with the possibility of Downing Street players facing charges sooner rather than later, the betting markets have had a big move in the last few days. This chart shows how the odds on Blair to go before the end of the year have moved dramatically. If Yates decides to charge someone before Christmas – say for obstructing the course of justice, something they have had evidence of for sometime – is it any wonder that increasingly punters think Blair could throw in the towel?