May 8th, 2005

Post Poll Punditry ‘fess Up

So how did blogging pundits do? Guido made a few calls and its time to ‘fess up.

My predictions were:- obviously a Labour win, LibDems to get 70+ seats, Tories 200+ seats, Labour only a double digit majority. Splits:- Nullist 40%, Labour 21%, Conservative 19%, Lib. Dem. 15%, Others 5%. (N.B. all electorate basis). Blunkett back in the cabinet on Friday. Anne “Julian” Milton to take Guildford, despite Tim Ireland’s witty efforts. Guido hoped that the excreable Andrew Dismore, London’s most expensive, least value for money, expense padding MP would lose his seat. Tony Clarke, a nasty ex-football hooligan, was I predicted doomed to hear the words “Tory Gain” ringing in his ears. Guido also wished farewell to Candy Atherton in Falmouth.

On the predictions, the winner was in no doubt, I was 8 seats short on my LibDems prediction, which cost me dearly with the spreadbetters, where I was expecting that to be my banker. 3 seats short on my Tory bet and easily right about the Labour majority.

Guildford did fall to the Julian Clary lookalike (and all who bet on her LibDem opponent handed me money on Betfair – thanks). Tony Clarke got thrashed as Guido was sure he would, Candy Atherton did lose, not to her Tory opponent – to the LibDem. Blunkett and his tax-bill did indeed return to the cabinet on Friday. On the electoral percentage splits I was always within 2% of the actual outcome.

Mike Smithson at politicalbetting.com did deservedly well (apart from over-estimating the LibDem advance), time methinks for other blogging pundits to ‘fess up. Forinstance, how did the war bloggers over at Harry’s Place fare?




Balls Calls for Deeper Cuts | Speccie
Lessons from the Thirties | CPS
PMQs Idiots | Harry Cole
Jon Cruddas is Not the Messier | Dan Hodges
We Should Honour Victims | Bob Blackman
Bad Al Campbell Spinning for Portland | PR Week
HuffPo’s House Jihadi | Washington Free Beacon
Osborne Gets His Soundbite | Nick Robinson
Moonbat versus Chomsky | Charles Crawford
Beecroft is “S**t” | LibDem MP
News of the World Trailed Watson’s Mistaken Mistress | Indy
Shabana Mahmood MP Saves Brum Market | ITV News
Plan a Velvet Divorce for the €uro | Gideon Rachman
Truth About Romney’s Bain “Vampire Capitalism” | Wall Street Journal
Clegg’s Revenge | Nick Wood
Cleaning Out Stables | Biased BBC

Previously Seen


Peter Botting



Lord Lamont told ITV News…

“I think the PM is just human and Ed Balls is a pretty irritating person”



The last Quango in Paris says:

Mr Bryant and Mr Watson managing to make the whole hacking affair look like a farce – the more they moan the less I care about the whole subject! So partisan it beggars belief at all costs. They cannot rise above it ! If I was to call the PM a ‘liar’ I would want to be VERY sure.



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